[Iowa-dx] God article on caucuses/popular vote/delegates

[Hart, Holly J]

http://www.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=3D/20080105/OPINION/=
801050304/1018/OPINION

Note the second part, especially.  This shows up how "retail politics" (her=
e meaning the kind where the people actually engage and decide something) i=
s overtaken by other interests.  Although the delegate count per states is =
set via population and congressional districts, not necessarily intended to=
 be unfair initially, you can see how it's working now....





Saturday, January 5, 2008

Iowa wins political play of the week



Jesse Tangkhpanya



This week Iowa saw the largest caucus turnout in its history. Jan. 3 wrappe=
d up a year's worth of campaigning by almost 20 candidates, and ended the c=
ampaigns of Senators Joe Biden and Chris Dodd.

The Iowa Republican results greatly surprised me. I had anticipated a Hucka=
bee win but not by so great of a margin. Huckabee didn't just beat Romney h=
ere, he slaughtered him. Romney had much more money as well as a carefully =
laid down organizational structure that he had been building for a year. On=
 top of that, over the course of the past month, Romney and his allies laun=
ched a coordinated attack on Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas. Mea=
nwhile, former Sen. Fred Thompson was on Huckabee's other side, criticizing=
 Huckabee's stances, everything from his immigration policy to his foreign =
policy credentials. Yet after all was said and done, he emerged out of cauc=
us night stronger than ever.

A Huckabee win is also very good news for former New York City Mayor Rudy G=
iuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who both seem to feel as if they can =
derail Huckabee more easily than Romney. They view Huckabee as a Pat Robert=
son candidate who easily can be stopped in New Hampshire or some of the big=
ger states.

The Iowa Democratic Results did not surprise me. On the eve of caucus night=
 I had been privately telling people that Sen. Barack Obama would win, form=
er Sen. John Edwards would take second and Sen. Hillary Clinton would be th=
ird. Higher voter turnout meant good news for Obama, and every single indic=
ator pointed towards massive voter turnout. In the end, Iowa voters voted w=
ith their hearts by overwhelmingly choosing Obama as the winner of the Iowa=
 Democratic caucus, with Edwards barely edging out Clinton for second place=
. As of noon Friday, the results show Edwards receiving 29.82 percent to Cl=
inton's 29.42 percent.

National delegate count

Interestingly enough, what really matters aren't the statewide delegate cou=
nts, the percentages or voter turnout. What matters is the number of nation=
al delegates Iowa Democrats will be sending to the national convention -- a=
ll the numbers before it simply determine how many national delegates each =
person gets. Obama won 16 out of Iowa's 57 national delegates. Clinton actu=
ally got 15 -- just one more over Edwards who got 14. The reason why Clinto=
n beat Edwards in the national delegate count is a true testament to Iowa's=
 complicated caucus system. Think of Al Gore in 2000 when he won the popula=
r vote but lost the Electoral College.

The big win for Iowa is not a lock win for Obama. In the race for national =
delegate counts, he still trails Clinton by almost 3-1. Right now, Clinton =
has 169, Obama has 66, and Edwards has 47. The reason why Clinton has more =
delegates than anyone else right now is because she has more super delegate=
s on her side. That's right, think superman. Super delegates are elected an=
d party officials who are automatic delegates to the national convention. S=
o in a sense, endorsements can matter, depending on whether or not you have=
 a delegate vote behind it.

On the flip side, this isn't a guarantee of good news for Clinton either. W=
hen John Kerry surprised everyone by defeating Howard Dean in 2004, the Dea=
n camp thought they still could hang on because they still had more overall=
 super delegates on their side. But what they didn't factor in was the mass=
ive buzz created after a Kerry win, which propelled him to win nearly every=
 other Democratic primary after Iowa. Kerry went on to clinch the nominatio=
n, and for all the money and buzz that was Dean, went on to fail without wi=
nning a single state. The good news for Obama people is that Obama is no Jo=
hn Kerry or Howard Dean. He will play his Iowa cards wisely, heading into N=
ew Hampshire with his head held high and the wind on his back.

Thursday's biggest winners

And finally, the biggest winner of the night was not a candidate. The Iowa =
caucus had the largest turnout in its history. An initial projection for De=
mocrats showed that 220,588 caucused compared to 124,000 in 2004. High-end =
predictions for that race were around the 150,000 range. Turnout was also u=
p on the Republican side, with 114,000 caucusing as opposed to 87,666 in 20=
00. Iowa has 2 million registered voters, which means that approximately on=
e in six Iowan's caucused. That's amazing turnout for a caucus.

Iowa voters proved to the nation that we do care and that we do vote here. =
We also proved to them that retail politics work. Candidates like Huckabee,=
 who had basically no money and no prospects have a chance here. They can g=
et outspent by double digits and still emerge victorious. We also proved th=
at the outsider candidate can beat the establishment candidate.

This might be the last time we're first in the nation again, but what Iowan=
s accomplished as a whole on Thursday make it harder to argue against strip=
ping us of our status. Iowa leaders will go into the party nomination battl=
es in the future armed with our turnout results to make the case again for =
Iowa to be first in the nation.

That's why Iowa caucus-goers get the political play of the week.

Jesse Tangkhpanya is a recent graduate of the University of Iowa with degre=
es in political science and journalism. The last political play winners wer=
e Sen. John McCain and Rep. Ron Paul.