[Peace-discussion] Cause of Darfur war
John Atkeison
john@atkeison.org
Sat, 23 Jun 2007 17:35:58 -0400 (EDT)
Thanks to Aimee for posting the listserv guidelines. Discussion of this
should happen on DX, if I read the guidelines correctly.<br /> I
include this article here on the main list as well as the DX list because
it relates profoundly to the core mission and strategic outlook of
GPAX.<br /> <font size="2" style="font-weight: bold;"><span
style="font-family: verdana,arial,helvetica,sans-serif;"> My point is that
Global Warming is the context and/or driving force for everything now:
war, peace, imperialism, liberation, and survival.</span></font> Recent
reports are overwhelmingly alarming and say that the processes we call
climate change are accellerating and that the situation threatens
democracy here as well as physical survival around the world. For more
info see especially the <a
href="http://www.climatecrisiscoalition.org/blog/">Climate Crisis
Coalition newsfeed</a> <http://www.climatecrisiscoalition.org/blog/>
for June 21 (Gelbspan) and June 19 (Hansen).<br /><span
style="font-weight: bold; font-style: italic;">See you on DX.</span><br
/><http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2109490,00.html><br
/><h1 style="font-family: verdana,arial,helvetica,sans-serif;"><font
size="4">Darfur conflict heralds era of wars triggered by climate change,
UN report warns</font></h1>
<font size="3" face="arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><b>·</b> Drought
and advancing desert blamed for tensions <br /> <b>·</b> Chad and
southern Africa also at risk from warming</font>
<br />
<br />
<font size="2" face="Geneva,Arial,sans-serif">
<b>Julian Borger, diplomatic editor Saturday June 23,
2007<br /><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/">The
Guardian</a></b>
<br />
<br />
</font>
The
conflict in Darfur has been driven by climate change and environmental
degradation, which threaten to trigger a succession of new wars across
Africa unless more is done to contain the damage, according to a UN
report published yesterday.<p>"Darfur ... holds grim lessons for other
countries at risk," an 18-month study of Sudan by the UN Environment
Programme (UNEP) concludes.</p><p>With rainfall down by up to 30% over
40 years and the Sahara advancing by well over a mile every year,
tensions between farmers and herders over disappearing pasture and
evaporating water holes threaten to reignite the half-century war
between north and south Sudan, held at bay by a precarious 2005 peace
accord.<br /></p>The southern Nuba tribe, for example, have warned they
could "restart
the war" because Arab nomads - pushed southwards into their territory
by drought - are cutting down trees to feed their camels.<p>The
UNEP investigation into links between climate and conflict in Sudan
predicts that the impact of climate change on stability is likely to go
far beyond its borders. It found there could be a drop of up to 70% in
crop yields in the most vulnerable areas of the Sahel, an ecologically
fragile belt stretching from Senegal to Sudan. "It illustrates and
demonstrates what is increasingly becoming a global concern," said
Achim Steiner, UNEP's executive director. "It doesn't take a genius to
work out that <span style="font-weight: bold;">as the desert moves
southwards there is a physical limit
to what [ecological] systems can sustain, and so you get one group
displacing another."</span></p><p>He also pointed to incipient
conflicts in
Chad "at least in part associated with environmental changes",
and to
growing tensions in southern Africa fuelled by droughts and
flooding.</p><p>Estimates
of the dead from the Darfur conflict, which broke out in 2003, range
from 200,000 to 500,000. The immediate cause was a regional rebellion,
to which Khartoum responded by recruiting Arab militias, the janjaweed,
to wage a campaign of ethnic cleansing against African civilians. The
UNEP study suggests the true genesis of the conflict pre-dates 2003 and
is to be found in failing rains and creeping desertification. It found
that:</p><p><b>·</b> The desert in northern Sudan has advanced southwards
by 60 miles over the past 40 years;<br /></p><p><b>·</b> Rainfall has
dropped by 16%-30%;<br /></p><p><b>·</b> Climate models for the region
suggest a rise of between 0.5C and 1.5C between 2030 and 2060;<br
/></p><p><b>·</b> Yields in the local staple, sorghum, could drop by
70%.<br /></p><p>In
the Washington Post, the <span style="font-weight: bold;">UN
secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon</span>, argued:
"Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a convenient military and
political shorthand - an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against
black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a
more complex dynamic. <span style="font-weight: bold;">Amid the diverse
social and political causes, the
Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part
from climate change."</span></p><p>In turn, the Darfur conflict has
exacerbated Sudan's environmental degradation, forcing more than two
million people into refugee camps. Deforestation has been accelerated
while underground aquifers are being drained.</p><p>A peace deal signed
last year by rebels and the Khartoum government broke down, but this
month President Omar al-Bashir said he would accept the deployment of a
joint UN and African Union force. He has reneged on similar pledges,
but UN diplomats are hopeful this one will stick. However, the UNEP
report warns that no peace will last without sustained investment in
containing environmental damage and adapting to climate change. Mr
Steiner said: "Simply to return people to the situation there were in
before is a high-risk strategy."</p><p>The G8 summit ended in Germany
with consensus over the severity of the climate change problem but no
agreement on how it should be contained. A common approach is supposed
to be negotiated under UN auspices at the end of the year.</p><br
/>-30-<br />
-*-<br />John Atkeison<br />TMobile (302) 345-0607<br />Cingular Only
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