[Peace-discussion] Times Union re:my letter to run corrections re number Iraqis killed
Dunleamark@aol.com
Dunleamark@aol.com
Fri, 26 Oct 2007 15:27:49 EDT
-------------------------------1193426868
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=20
The Albany Times Union has told me that they will write a correction or =20
explanation of why the changed the number of Iraqis killed (from 1 million t=
o =20
100,000) in my letter to the editor which they published today. They indicat=
e =20
they will be writing as to why they changed the estimate
=20
Below is the letter that they published today , which I had to shorten to =20
300 words at their request, which already forced me to drop several key poi=
nts.
=20
Following that is my request for a correction as to the number of Iraqis =20
killed.
=20
Mark
=20
-----------------
U.S. must end its shameful occupation of Iraq=20
First published: Friday, October 26, 2007=20
It is time to withdraw our troops from the killing fields of Iraq. =20
The U.S. invasion of Iraq has killed as many as a 100,000 or more civilians=
=20
and turned many more into refugees. Those who remain largely lack the =20
resources to flee. They suffer incredible deprivation as death stalks them,=20=
lacking=20
basic necessities such as food, electricity and medicine.=20
Some defend continuing the occupation on the grounds that withdrawal would=20
escalate the raging civil war. Yet this civil war is the United States' =20
creation -- and increasingly we arm both sides. Before the invasion, if you=20=
had =20
asked residents if they were a Sunni or Shiite, they would have said they we=
re =20
an Iraqi.=20
=20
It is as if Iraqi reporters descended upon Times Square and demanded to kno=
w=20
whether local residents were Presbyterians or Baptists rather than =20
Americans. The U.S. has stoked sectarian conflict from the start.=20
=20
It is important that we withdraw all the troops. The Bush administration an=
d=20
Congress had two principal goals for the invasion: taking control of the =20
Iraqi oil supplies and creating permanent American military bases from which=
to =20
dominate the Middle East. Democrats from Gillibrand to Clinton continue to =20
support permanent bases.=20
The U.S. occupation of Iraq will go down as one of the most shameful =20
episodes of our history. In addition to the killing of so many civilians, we=
have=20
allowed unbridled corruption by military contractors, widely used torture a=
nd=20
employed an out-of-control massive mercenary army (i.e., private contractor=
s)=20
that kills at will. Meanwhile we have demoralized our own soldiers, turning=
=20
them into shooting targets in a senseless war.=20
Americans gave Democrats control of Congress to end the war, but they =20
continue to rationalize its continuation. It is time to put an end to the mi=
sery =20
being inflicted in our name.
MARK DUNLEA=20
Poestenkill=20
=20
=20
-------------------
=20
=20
This morning the Times Union published a letter from me about Iraq. The =20
Times Union changed a key statement in the letter without my permission or =20
knowledge.
=20
I would appreciate a correction. If you (the Times Union) wish to take a=20
different position, that is fine, but you should make it clear that is the =20=
Times=20
Union's words, not mine. I thought that letters to the editor represent the=
=20
viewpoint of the author, not the Times Union.
=20
I was asked to cut my letter to 300 words. After doing so, here is the =20
paragraph you changed.
=20
"The US invasion of Iraq has killed as many as a million civilians and =20
turned several million more into refugees. Those who remain largely lack the=
=20
resources to flee. They suffer incredible deprivation as death stalks them,=20=
=20
lacking basic necessities such as food, electricity and medicine."
=20
What you (the Times Union) wrote instead was:
=20
The U.S. invasion of Iraq has killed as many as a 100,000 or more=20
civilians and turned many more into refugees.=20
=20
As you may know, I host a weekly public affairs radio show on WRPI. I was =20
prompted to write this letter after interviewing reporter Dahr Jamal prior t=
o =20
his recent talk in Troy at the Sanctuary for Independent Media. Dahr has spe=
nt =20
considerable time in Iraq. More recently he has spent time with the refugees=
=20
from Iraq. Much of our 25 minute interview was about the millions of =20
refugees.
=20
I had recently read several reports about the number of people killed in =20
Iraq. Before submitting the article, I did research on the number. While thi=
s =20
number is highly debated, several reports have put the number over one milli=
on. =20
One such report with a million figure first published in the LA Times is=20
below. I have seen estimates as high as 1.4 million.
=20
Another leading study - paid for by MIT, overseen by John Hopkins, and=20
published in Lancet, the British Medical Journal (see Washington Post artic=
le=20
below) was based on calculating excess deaths in Iraq. More than a year ago=
they=20
put the number of deaths at 650,000. (This was a range, so the top range wa=
s=20
higher and this of course was a year ago.) I have assumed that this was=20
somewhat of an undercount since I assumed that their baseline years include=
d=20
deaths occurring from previous conflicts (Iran-Iraq war, the first Gulf War=
, and=20
the decades long economic blockade).
=20
Yesterday on my radio show, I interviewed Kathy Kelly, who was nominated fo=
r=20
the Nobel Peace Prize for her work in Iraq. She will be speaking in the =20
Capital District from Nov. 1 to 3, including her visits this summer with re=
fugees=20
from Iraq. Since I had just researched for the letter the number of Iraqis=20
killed, I decided to ask her what the numbers were. She ran through the=20
various estimates, starting with the low numbers and then working up to the=20=
one=20
million plus number, which she agreed was reasonable. One very large number=20=
she=20
cited - which I don't remember but was perhaps in the 50,000 range - was the=
=20
official report from Iraq of just the number of children last year who faile=
d=20
to reach their 5th birthday (i.e., they were dead). She pointed out that=20
this was of course just for one year of a multi-year war. It is estimated t=
hat=20
about 500,000 Iraqi children were killed due to the US economic blockade=20
before the invasion (about 40,000 children a year.)
=20
I also didn't know that the refugee issue was a point of dispute with the =20
Times Union. Dahr put the number of refugees at 3 million. The article below=
in =20
a British paper cites the UN as stating there are 4.2 million refugees =20
(though this includes about 2 million still within Iraq, which might account=
for =20
Dahr's different number.) The UN has apparently cited the Iraq refugee crisi=
s=20
as the biggest in the world at this point
=20
I look forward to the correction.
=20
Sincerely,
=20
Mark Dunlea
518 434-7371 xt 1# - w
518 283-6512 - h
=20
=20
Published on Friday, September 14, 2007 by _the Los Angeles Times_=20
(http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iraq14sep14,1,3979621.s=
tory?coll=3Dla
-headlines-world) =20
Poll: Civilian Death Toll in Iraq May Top 1 Million
A British survey offers the highest estimate to date. At least 4 die in a=20
Sadr City car bombing.
by Tina Susman
=20
BAGHDAD - A car bomb blew up in the capital=E2=80=99s Shiite Muslim neighbor=
hood of =20
Sadr City on Thursday, killing at least four people, as a new survey suggest=
ed=20
that the civilian death toll from the war could be more than 1 million.=20
The figure from ORB, a British polling agency that has conducted several =20
surveys in Iraq, followed statements this week from the U.S. military defend=
ing =20
itself against accusations it was trying to play down Iraqi deaths to make i=
ts=20
strategy appear successful.=20
(http://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/0914_04.jpg) =20
The military has said civilian deaths from sectarian violence have fallen =20
more than 55% since President Bush sent an additional 28,500 troops to Iraq=20=
this=20
year, but it does not provide specific numbers.=20
According to the ORB poll, a survey of 1,461 adults suggested that the total=
=20
number slain during more than four years of war was more than 1.2 million.=20
ORB said it drew its conclusion from responses to the question about those =20
living under one roof: =E2=80=9CHow many members of your household, if any,=20=
have died=20
as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003?=E2=80=9D=20
Based on Iraq=E2=80=99s estimated number of households =E2=80=94 4,050,597=20=
=E2=80=94 it said the 1.2=20
million figure was reasonable.=20
There was no way to verify the number, because the government does not =20
provide a full count of civilian deaths. Neither does the U.S. military.=20
Both, however, say that independent organizations greatly exaggerate =20
estimates of civilian casualties.=20
ORB said its poll had a margin of error of 2.4%. According to its findings,=20=
=20
nearly one in two households in Baghdad had lost at least one member to war-=
=20
related violence, and 22% of households nationwide had suffered at least one=
=20
death. It said 48% of the victims were shot to death and 20% died as a resul=
t=20
of car bombs, with other explosions and military bombardments blamed for mo=
st=20
of the other fatalities.=20
The survey was conducted last month.=20
It was the highest estimate given so far of civilian deaths in Iraq. Last =20
year, a study in the medical journal Lancet put the number at 654,965, which=
=20
Iraq=E2=80=99s government has dismissed as =E2=80=9Cridiculous.=E2=80=9D=20
---------------------------=20
Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000
By _David Brown_=20
(http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/david+brown/)=20
_http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR200610100=
14
42.html_=20
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR200610100=
1442.html)=20
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 11, 2006; Page A12 =20
=20
A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000 more =20
people have died in _Iraq_ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/
world/countries/iraq.html?nav=3Del) since coalition forces arrived in Marc=
h 2003 than would=20
have died if the invasion had not occurred.=20
The estimate, produced by interviewing residents during a random sampling of=
=20
households throughout the country, is far higher than ones produced by other=
=20
groups, including Iraq's government. =20
=20
(javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/postpho=
tos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445&imgUrl=3D/pho=
to/2006
/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850)))=20
=20
(javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/postpho=
tos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445&imgUrl=3D/pho=
to/2006
/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850)))=20
A man mourns his son Friday in Baqubah, a city north of Baghdad. The child=20
died in random gunfire near a family home in the village of Khan Bani Saad.=
=20
(By Mohammed Adnan -- Associated Press)=20
=20
It is more than 20 times the estimate of 30,000 civilian deaths that =20
President Bush gave in a speech in December. It is more than 10 times the e=
stimate=20
of roughly 50,000 civilian deaths made by the British-based Iraq Body Count=
=20
research group.=20
The surveyors said they found a steady increase in mortality since the =20
invasion, with a steeper rise in the last year that appears to reflect a wo=
rsening=20
of violence as reported by the U.S. military, the news media and civilian=20
groups. In the year ending in June, the team calculated Iraq's mortality ra=
te=20
to be roughly four times what it was the year before the war.=20
Of the total 655,000 estimated "excess deaths," 601,000 resulted from =20
violence and the rest from disease and other causes, according to the study.=
This=20
is about 500 unexpected violent deaths per day throughout the country.=20
The survey was done by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists at =20
Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health. The findings a=
re =20
being published online today by the British medical journal the Lancet.=20
The same group in 2004 published an estimate of roughly 100,000 deaths in th=
e=20
first 18 months after the invasion. That figure was much higher than=20
expected, and was controversial. The new study estimates that about 500,000=
more=20
Iraqis, both civilian and military, have died since then -- a finding likel=
y to=20
be equally controversial.=20
Both this and the earlier study are the only ones to estimate mortality in =20
Iraq using scientific methods. The technique, called "cluster sampling," is=20
used to estimate mortality in famines and after natural disasters.=20
While acknowledging that the estimate is large, the researchers believe it i=
s=20
sound for numerous reasons. The recent survey got the same estimate for =20
immediate post-invasion deaths as the early survey, which gives the research=
ers =20
confidence in the methods. The great majority of deaths were also=20
substantiated by death certificates.=20
"We're very confident with the results," said Gilbert Burnham, a Johns =20
Hopkins physician and epidemiologist.=20
article then continues, last paragraph is=20
The survey cost about $50,000 and was paid for by Massachusetts Institute of=
=20
Technology's Center for International Studies.=20
--------------------------------------------------------=20
_http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2640418.ece_=20
(http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2640418.ece) =20
UN warns of five million Iraqi refugees =20
Half of displaced people have no access to food aid=20
<AUTHOR>By Patrick =20
Published: 10 June 2007=20
=20
=20
=20
Omar, a Sunni driver, lived in a pleasant house in a Shia neighbourhood of =20
al-Jihad district in west Baghdad until he decided that it was too dangerous=
=20
for his family to stay. =20
He moved with them to Damascus, but it was too expensive and he had no chanc=
e=20
of getting a job.=20
He returned to his home in al-Jihad, but when he arrived his neighbours said=
=20
that the Mahdi Army Shia militia had left a message for him. It said that if=
=20
he ever re-occupied the house, they would kill him.=20
Omar moved to the supposedly safer Sunni district of al-Khadra, but now he =20
faces another problem. Al-Qa'ida insurgents are demanding that he join them=20=
on =20
nightly patrols.=20
First they asked him politely to meet their emir or local leader. Later, whe=
n=20
he failed to do so, they became more menacing.=20
They said: "Either you come with us or you will have to leave here. We =20
suspect that you are not a Sunni, because a real Sunni would not hesitate to=
join=20
the jihad."=20
Across Iraq, millions of people are looking for safer places to live, and no=
t=20
finding them. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)=20
reported last week that 4.2 million Iraqis have been forced out of their ho=
mes.=20
There are also ominous signs that the four-month-old US security plan for =20
Baghdad is failing to reduce the level of violence despite an extra 17,000 U=
S =20
troops in the capital.=20
"The situation in Iraq continues to worsen," the UNHCR announced, "with more=
=20
than two million Iraqis now believed to be displaced inside the country and=20=
=20
another 2.2 million sheltering in neighbouring states."=20
The Iraqi refugee crisis is now surpassing in numbers anything ever seen in=20=
=20
the Middle East, including the expulsion or flight of the Palestinians in =20
1948.=20
Since the sectarian pogroms that followed the destruction of the Shia shrine=
=20
in Samarra in February 2006, an estimated 850,000 people have been displaced=
=20
within Iraq, including 15,000 Palestinians who have nowhere to go.=20
"Individual governorates inside Iraq are becoming overwhelmed by the needs o=
f=20
the displaced," said an UNHCR spokesperson, Jennifer Pagonis. "At least 10=20
out of 18 governorates have closed their borders, or are denying access to=20=
new=20
arrivals."=20
As a result, many refugees are taking refuge in shanty towns, and almost hal=
f=20
of them are not receiving the state-subsidised rations that enable most=20
Iraqis to feed themselves.=20
The UN Assistance Mission to Iraq and the World Food Programme estimate that=
=20
"at least 47 per cent of the displaced have no access to official food =20
distribution channels".=20
The number of Iraqis taking refuge in other countries continues to climb, =20
with 1.4 million in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan, 80,000 in Egypt and 200,000 in=
the=20
Gulf region.=20
Syria alone is receiving 30,000 Iraqis a month. The arrival of so many extra=
=20
people in Damascus has led to a steep rise in the price of food.=20
The exodus is not likely to end. The arrival of extra American troops in =20
Baghdad, the so-called "surge", which started on 14 February, led to a brief=
=20
decline in the number of sectarian killings, but these are once again on the=
=20
rise.=20
Some 736 bodies were found dumped in the streets of Baghdad in May, which =20
exceeds the number found in January prior to the new security plan. So far i=
n =20
June 206 bodies have been found. Most are the victims of sectarian killings.=
=20
American control of Baghdad remains very limited, with one divisional survey=
=20
finding that US and Iraqi government forces control only 146 out of 457 =20
neighbourhoods. US and government authority is even more limited in the town=
s =20
around the capital.=20
Most of the killings are concentrated in west Baghdad, where many districts=20=
=20
are contested between Sunni and Shia, while east Baghdad is very largely =20
controlled by the Shia.=20
What some Iraqi politicians call "the battle for Baghdad", effectively a =20
sectarian civil war, has been largely won by the Shia who, going by election=
=20
results, make up three quarters of the capital's population.=20
=20
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<DIV> =20
<DIV>The Albany Times Union has told me that they will write a correction or=
=20
explanation of why the changed the number of Iraqis killed (from 1 million t=
o=20
100,000) in my letter to the editor which they published today. They indicat=
e=20
they will be writing as to why they changed the estimate</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Below is the letter that they published today , which I had to shorten=20=
to=20
300 words at their request, which already forced me to drop several key=20
points.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Following that is my request for a correction as to the number of Iraqi=
s=20
killed.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Mark</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-----------------</DIV>
<DIV>U.S. must end its shameful occupation of Iraq <BR><BR>First published:=20
Friday, October 26, 2007 </DIV>
<DIV><BR>It is time to withdraw our troops from the killing fields of Iraq.=20
<BR> <BR>The U.S. invasion of Iraq has killed as many as a 100,000 or m=
ore=20
civilians and turned many more into refugees. Those who remain largely lack=20=
the=20
resources to flee. They suffer incredible deprivation as death stalks them,=20
lacking basic necessities such as food, electricity and medicine. </DIV>
<DIV><BR>Some defend continuing the occupation on the grounds that withdrawa=
l=20
would escalate the raging civil war. Yet this civil war is the United States=
'=20
creation -- and increasingly we arm both sides. Before the invasion, if you=20=
had=20
asked residents if they were a Sunni or Shiite, they would have said they we=
re=20
an Iraqi. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It is as if Iraqi reporters descended upon Times Square and demanded to=
=20
know whether local residents were Presbyterians or Baptists rather than=20
Americans. The U.S. has stoked sectarian conflict from the start. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It is important that we withdraw all the troops. The Bush administratio=
n=20
and Congress had two principal goals for the invasion: taking control of the=
=20
Iraqi oil supplies and creating permanent American military bases from which=
to=20
dominate the Middle East. Democrats from Gillibrand to Clinton continue to=20
support permanent bases. </DIV>
<DIV><BR> </DIV>
<DIV>The U.S. occupation of Iraq will go down as one of the most shameful=20
episodes of our history. In addition to the killing of so many civilians, we=
=20
have allowed unbridled corruption by military contractors, widely used tortu=
re=20
and employed an out-of-control massive mercenary army (i.e., private=20
contractors) that kills at will. Meanwhile we have demoralized our own soldi=
ers,=20
turning them into shooting targets in a senseless war. </DIV>
<DIV><BR> </DIV>
<DIV>Americans gave Democrats control of Congress to end the war, but they=20
continue to rationalize its continuation. It is time to put an end to the mi=
sery=20
being inflicted in our name.</DIV>
<DIV><BR>MARK DUNLEA <BR>Poestenkill </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-------------------</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>This morning the Times Union published a letter from me about Iraq. The=
=20
Times Union changed a key statement in the letter without my permission or=20
knowledge.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I would appreciate a correction. If you (the Times Union) wish to=20=
take=20
a different position, that is fine, but you should make it clear that is the=
=20
Times Union's words, not mine. I thought that letters to the editor represen=
t=20
the viewpoint of the author, not the Times Union.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I was asked to cut my letter to 300 words. After doing so, here is the=20
paragraph you changed.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"The US invasion of Iraq has killed as many as a million civilians and=20
turned several million more into refugees. Those who remain largely lack the=
=20
resources to flee. They suffer incredible deprivation as death stalks them,=20
lacking basic necessities such as food, electricity and medicine."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>What you (the Times Union) wrote instead was:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 align=3Dleft border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD><!------ OAS AD 'x10' end ------></TD>
<TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The U.S. invasion of Iraq has killed=
as many=20
as a 100,000 or more civilians and turned many more into refugees. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>As you may know, I host a weekly public affairs radio show on WRPI. I w=
as=20
prompted to write this letter after interviewing reporter Dahr Jamal prior t=
o=20
his recent talk in Troy at the Sanctuary for Independent Media. Dahr has spe=
nt=20
considerable time in Iraq. More recently he has spent time with the refugees=
=20
from Iraq. Much of our 25 minute interview was about the millions of=20
refugees.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I had recently read several reports about the number of people killed i=
n=20
Iraq. Before submitting the article, I did research on the number. While thi=
s=20
number is highly debated, several reports have put the number over one milli=
on.=20
One such report with a million figure first published in the LA Times is bel=
ow.=20
I have seen estimates as high as 1.4 million.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Another leading study - paid for by MIT, overseen by John=20
Hopkins, and published in Lancet, the British Medical Journal (see=20
Washington Post article below) was based on calculating excess deaths i=
n=20
Iraq. More than a year ago they put the number of deaths at 650,000. (This w=
as a=20
range, so the top range was higher and this of course was a year ago.) I hav=
e=20
assumed that this was somewhat of an undercount since I assumed that their=20
baseline years included deaths occurring from previous conflicts (Iran-=
Iraq=20
war, the first Gulf War, and the decades long economic blockade).</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Yesterday on my radio show, I interviewed Kathy Kelly, who was nominate=
d=20
for the Nobel Peace Prize for her work in Iraq. She will be speaking in the=20
Capital District from Nov. 1 to 3, including her visits this summer with=20
refugees from Iraq. Since I had just researched for the letter the number of=
=20
Iraqis killed, I decided to ask her what the numbers were. She ran thr=
ough=20
the various estimates, starting with the low numbers and then working up to=20=
the=20
one million plus number, which she agreed was reasonable. One very large num=
ber=20
she cited - which I don't remember but was perhaps in the 50,000 range - was=
the=20
official report from Iraq of just the number of children last year who faile=
d to=20
reach their 5th birthday (i.e., they were dead). She pointed out that this w=
as=20
of course just for one year of a multi-year war. It is estimated that about=20
500,000 Iraqi children were killed due to the US economic blockade before th=
e=20
invasion (about 40,000 children a year.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I also didn't know that the refugee issue was a point of dispute with t=
he=20
Times Union. Dahr put the number of refugees at 3 million. The article below=
in=20
a British paper cites the UN as stating there are 4.2 million refugees=20
(though this includes about 2 million still within Iraq, which might account=
for=20
Dahr's different number.) The UN has apparently cited the Iraq refugee crisi=
s as=20
the biggest in the world at this point</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I look forward to the correction.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Sincerely,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Mark Dunlea</DIV>
<DIV>518 434-7371 xt 1# - w</DIV>
<DIV>518 283-6512 - h</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=3Dpost-header><SPAN class=3Dpost-date><EM>Published on Friday, Se=
ptember=20
14, 2007 by </EM><A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iraq14sep14,1,39=
79621.story?coll=3Dla-headlines-world=20
href=3D"http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iraq14sep14,1,39=
79621.story?coll=3Dla-headlines-world"=20
target=3D_new><EM>the Los Angeles Times</EM></A></SPAN>=20
<H2>Poll: Civilian Death Toll in Iraq May Top 1 Million<BR><FONT size=3D3>A=20
British survey offers the highest estimate to date. At least 4 die in a Sadr=
=20
City car bombing.<BR></FONT></H2>
<DIV class=3Dpost-credit>by Tina Susman</DIV></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dpost-body>
<P>BAGHDAD - A car bomb blew up in the capital=E2=80=99s Shiite Muslim neigh=
borhood of=20
Sadr City on Thursday, killing at least four people, as a new survey suggest=
ed=20
that the civilian death toll from the war could be more than 1 million.</P>
<P>The figure from ORB, a British polling agency that has conducted several=20
surveys in Iraq, followed statements this week from the U.S. military defend=
ing=20
itself against accusations it was trying to play down Iraqi deaths to make i=
ts=20
strategy appear successful.<A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/0914_04.jpg=20
onclick=3D"pp_image_popup('http://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/ph=
otos/0914_04.jpg',350,321); return false;"=20
href=3D"http://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/0914_04.jpg"><=
IMG=20
class=3Dpp_image=20
title=3Dhttp://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/0914_04.jpg=20
height=3D321 alt=3Dhttp://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/091=
4_04.jpg=20
hspace=3D10=20
src=3D"http://www.commondreams.org/archive/wp-content/photos/0914_04.jpg"=20
width=3D350 align=3Dright vspace=3D10 border=3D0></A></P>
<P>The military has said civilian deaths from sectarian violence have fallen=
=20
more than 55% since President Bush sent an additional 28,500 troops to Iraq=20=
this=20
year, but it does not provide specific numbers.</P>
<P>According to the ORB poll, a survey of 1,461 adults suggested that the to=
tal=20
number slain during more than four years of war was more than 1.2 million.</=
P>
<P>ORB said it drew its conclusion from responses to the question about thos=
e=20
living under one roof: =E2=80=9CHow many members of your household, if any,=20=
have died as=20
a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003?=E2=80=9D</P>
<P>Based on Iraq=E2=80=99s estimated number of households =E2=80=94 4,050,59=
7 =E2=80=94 it said the 1.2=20
million figure was reasonable.</P>
<P>There was no way to verify the number, because the government does not=20
provide a full count of civilian deaths. Neither does the U.S. military.</P>
<P>Both, however, say that independent organizations greatly exaggerate=20
estimates of civilian casualties.</P>
<P>ORB said its poll had a margin of error of 2.4%. According to its finding=
s,=20
nearly one in two households in Baghdad had lost at least one member to war-=
=20
related violence, and 22% of households nationwide had suffered at least one=
=20
death. It said 48% of the victims were shot to death and 20% died as a resul=
t of=20
car bombs, with other explosions and military bombardments blamed for most o=
f=20
the other fatalities.</P>
<P>The survey was conducted last month.</P>
<P>It was the highest estimate given so far of civilian deaths in Iraq. Last=
=20
year, a study in the medical journal Lancet put the number at 654,965, which=
=20
Iraq=E2=80=99s government has dismissed as =E2=80=9Cridiculous.=E2=80=9D</P>
<P>---------------------------</P>
<H1>Study Claims Iraq's 'Excess' Death Toll Has Reached 655,000</H1>
<H2></H2>
<P>
<DIV id=3Dbyline>By <A=20
title=3Dhttp://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/david+brown/=20
href=3D"http://projects.washingtonpost.com/staff/email/david+brown/"><FONT=20
color=3D#0c4790>David Brown</FONT></A></DIV>
<DIV><A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR20=
06101001442.html=20
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/10/AR20=
06101001442.html">http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/=
10/10/AR2006101001442.html</A></DIV>
<P>Washington Post Staff Writer<BR>Wednesday, October 11, 2006; Page A12 </P=
>
<P>
<DIV id=3Darticle_body>
<P>A team of American and Iraqi epidemiologists estimates that 655,000 more=20
people have died in <A=20
title=3Dhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/countries/iraq.html?nav=
=3Del=20
href=3D"http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/countries/iraq.html?nav=
=3Del"=20
target=3D""><FONT color=3D#0c4790>Iraq</FONT></A> since coalition forces arr=
ived in=20
March 2003 than would have died if the invasion had not occurred.</P>
<P>The estimate, produced by interviewing residents during a random sampling=
of=20
households throughout the country, is far higher than ones produced by other=
=20
groups, including Iraq's government.</P>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D238 align=3Dright>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD width=3D10></TD>
<TD width=3D228>
<DIV class=3Dmedia_photo><!--link rel=3D"image_src" href=3D"http://med=
ia3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001443.jpg"/=
--><A=20
title=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv=
/photo/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445=
&imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"=20
href=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/=
photo/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445&=
amp;imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"><IMG=20
title=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv=
/photo/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445=
&imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"=20
height=3D12=20
alt=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/p=
hoto/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445&a=
mp;imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"=20
src=3D"http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/photo/largerPhoto/image=
s/enlarge_tab.gif"=20
width=3D103 align=3Dbottom border=3D0></A><BR><A=20
title=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv=
/photo/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445=
&imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"=20
href=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/=
photo/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445&=
amp;imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"><IMG=20
title=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv=
/photo/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445=
&imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"=20
height=3D170=20
alt=3D"javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/p=
hoto/postphotos/orb/asection/2006-10-11/index.html?imgId=3DPH2006101001445&a=
mp;imgUrl=3D/photo/2006/10/10/PH2006101001445.html',650,850))"=20
src=3D"http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2006/10/1=
0/PH2006101001443.jpg"=20
width=3D228 align=3Dtop border=3D0></A>=20
<DIV id=3Dcaption>A man mourns his son Friday in Baqubah, a city north=
of=20
Baghdad. The child died in random gunfire near a family home in the=20
village of Khan Bani Saad.<SPAN id=3Dcredit><FONT color=3D#666666> (By=
=20
Mohammed Adnan -- Associated Press) </FONT></SPAN></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=3Dsidebarhack><B><FONT color=3D#666666></FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV class=3Dsidebar><FONT=20
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<P>It is more than 20 times the estimate of 30,000 civilian deaths that=20
President Bush gave in a speech in December. It is more than 10 times the=20
estimate of roughly 50,000 civilian deaths made by the British-based Iraq Bo=
dy=20
Count research group.</P>
<P>The surveyors said they found a steady increase in mortality since the=20
invasion, with a steeper rise in the last year that appears to reflect a=20
worsening of violence as reported by the U.S. military, the news media and=20
civilian groups. In the year ending in June, the team calculated Iraq's=20
mortality rate to be roughly four times what it was the year before the war.=
</P>
<P>Of the total 655,000 estimated "excess deaths," 601,000 resulted from=20
violence and the rest from disease and other causes, according to the study.=
=20
This is about 500 unexpected violent deaths per day throughout the country.<=
/P>
<P>The survey was done by Iraqi physicians and overseen by epidemiologists a=
t=20
Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health. The findings a=
re=20
being published online today by the British medical journal the Lancet.</P>
<P>The same group in 2004 published an estimate of roughly 100,000 deaths in=
the=20
first 18 months after the invasion. That figure was much higher than expecte=
d,=20
and was controversial. The new study estimates that about 500,000 more Iraqi=
s,=20
both civilian and military, have died since then -- a finding likely to be=20
equally controversial.</P>
<P>Both this and the earlier study are the only ones to estimate mortality i=
n=20
Iraq using scientific methods. The technique, called "cluster sampling," is=20=
used=20
to estimate mortality in famines and after natural disasters.</P>
<P>While acknowledging that the estimate is large, the researchers believe i=
t is=20
sound for numerous reasons. The recent survey got the same estimate for=20
immediate post-invasion deaths as the early survey, which gives the research=
ers=20
confidence in the methods. The great majority of deaths were also substantia=
ted=20
by death certificates.</P>
<P>"We're very confident with the results," said Gilbert Burnham, a Johns=20
Hopkins physician and epidemiologist.</P>
<P>article then continues, last paragraph is</P>
<P>The survey cost about $50,000 and was paid for by Massachusetts Institute=
of=20
Technology's Center for International Studies.</P>
<P>--------------------------------------------------------</P>
<P><A title=3Dhttp://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2640418=
.ece=20
href=3D"http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2640418.ece">=
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2640418.ece</A></P>
<P>UN warns of five million Iraqi refugees<!--proximic_content_off--> <SPAN=20
class=3Dstarrating></SPAN></P>
<H2><!--proximic_content_on-->Half of displaced people have no access to foo=
d=20
aid<!--proximic_content_off--> </H2>
<H3><AUTHOR>By Patrick Cockburn</AUTHOR> </H3>
<H4>Published: 10 June 2007 </H4>
<DIV class=3DbodyCopy>
<DIV class=3DarticleButton>
<DIV class=3Dad id=3Darticlebutton></DIV></DIV>
<DIV id=3DbodyCopyContent><!--proximic_content_on-->
<P>Omar, a Sunni driver, lived in a pleasant house in a Shia neighbourhood o=
f=20
al-Jihad district in west Baghdad until he decided that it was too dangerous=
for=20
his family to stay. </P><!--proximic_content_off--><!--proximic_content_on--=
>
<P>He moved with them to Damascus, but it was too expensive and he had no ch=
ance=20
of getting a job.</P>
<P>He returned to his home in al-Jihad, but when he arrived his neighbours s=
aid=20
that the Mahdi Army Shia militia had left a message for him. It said that if=
he=20
ever re-occupied the house, they would kill him.</P>
<P>Omar moved to the supposedly safer Sunni district of al-Khadra, but now h=
e=20
faces another problem. Al-Qa'ida insurgents are demanding that he join them=20=
on=20
nightly patrols.</P>
<P>First they asked him politely to meet their emir or local leader. Later,=20=
when=20
he failed to do so, they became more menacing.</P>
<P>They said: "Either you come with us or you will have to leave here. We=20
suspect that you are not a Sunni, because a real Sunni would not hesitate to=
=20
join the jihad."</P>
<P>Across Iraq, millions of people are looking for safer places to live, and=
not=20
finding them. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) report=
ed=20
last week that 4.2 million Iraqis have been forced out of their homes.</P>
<P>There are also ominous signs that the four-month-old US security plan for=
=20
Baghdad is failing to reduce the level of violence despite an extra 17,000 U=
S=20
troops in the capital.</P>
<P>"The situation in Iraq continues to worsen," the UNHCR announced, "with m=
ore=20
than two million Iraqis now believed to be displaced inside the country and=20
another 2.2 million sheltering in neighbouring states."</P>
<P>The Iraqi refugee crisis is now surpassing in numbers anything ever seen=20=
in=20
the Middle East, including the expulsion or flight of the Palestinians in=20
1948.</P>
<P>Since the sectarian pogroms that followed the destruction of the Shia shr=
ine=20
in Samarra in February 2006, an estimated 850,000 people have been displaced=
=20
within Iraq, including 15,000 Palestinians who have nowhere to go.</P>
<P>"Individual governorates inside Iraq are becoming overwhelmed by the need=
s of=20
the displaced," said an UNHCR spokesperson, Jennifer Pagonis. "At least 10 o=
ut=20
of 18 governorates have closed their borders, or are denying access to new=20
arrivals."</P>
<P>As a result, many refugees are taking refuge in shanty towns, and almost=20=
half=20
of them are not receiving the state-subsidised rations that enable most Iraq=
is=20
to feed themselves.</P>
<P>The UN Assistance Mission to Iraq and the World Food Programme estimate t=
hat=20
"at least 47 per cent of the displaced have no access to official food=20
distribution channels".</P>
<P>The number of Iraqis taking refuge in other countries continues to climb,=
=20
with 1.4 million in Syria, 750,000 in Jordan, 80,000 in Egypt and 200,000 in=
the=20
Gulf region.</P>
<P>Syria alone is receiving 30,000 Iraqis a month. The arrival of so many ex=
tra=20
people in Damascus has led to a steep rise in the price of food.</P>
<P>The exodus is not likely to end. The arrival of extra American troops in=20
Baghdad, the so-called "surge", which started on 14 February, led to a brief=
=20
decline in the number of sectarian killings, but these are once again on the=
=20
rise.</P>
<P>Some 736 bodies were found dumped in the streets of Baghdad in May, which=
=20
exceeds the number found in January prior to the new security plan. So far i=
n=20
June 206 bodies have been found. Most are the victims of sectarian killings.=
</P>
<P>American control of Baghdad remains very limited, with one divisional sur=
vey=20
finding that US and Iraqi government forces control only 146 out of 457=20
neighbourhoods. US and government authority is even more limited in the town=
s=20
around the capital.</P>
<P>Most of the killings are concentrated in west Baghdad, where many distric=
ts=20
are contested between Sunni and Shia, while east Baghdad is very largely=20
controlled by the Shia.</P>
<P>What some Iraqi politicians call "the battle for Baghdad", effectively a=20
sectarian civil war, has been largely won by the Shia who, going by election=
=20
results, make up three quarters of the capital's population.=20
</P></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>
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