[Pnp-wg] The ratios based on voting strength
Elizabeth Arnone
elizarnone@comcast.net
Tue, 19 Apr 2005 21:04:33 -0400
Thanks Steve. You put a lot of work into this. Just for comparison sake, I
added the number of delegates for each state at the Milwaukee convention.
Wanted to see how voting strength made a difference then and now.
Those numbers are in ( ) below. Interesting.
Liz
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Greenfield" <bicyclesax@earthlink.net>
To: <Pnp-wg@lists.gp-us.org>
Sent: Tuesday, April 19, 2005 12:19 AM
Subject: [Pnp-wg] The ratios based on voting strength
Notes on Methodology:
1. Statewide race averaging includes all races with a statewide district and
Dems and Reps in the race, 1998 to present, including Presidential races.
Results for Presidential races taken from FEC website and for 2004 include
Cobb & Nader totals combined. Results for state races taken from reports
from each state election agency. Where state reports were unavailable, data
taken from Mike Feinstein. States listed only with Presidential race
averages indicates no other Green statewide races have been held in those
states. Complete listing of all races considered and their vote totals
available upon request.
2. Races reporting totals significantly below the state's average, such as
late-entry write in campaigns, etc. were not included in averages.
3. Percentage figures indicate percentage of total national votes for Greens
in statewide & presidential races 1998 - 2004
Notes on delegate allocation:
1. These allocation figures are calculated purely by the vote averages, not
by any other factors such as membership or state population.
2. In the interest of offering each state the most advantageous allocation,
and in light of the fact that situations in the different states as far as
ballot access and other less tangible variables, I am suggesting that the
higher of the percentages achieved through this calculation be the one
applied for delegate allocation. Such is noted for each state.
3. Convention 1 indicates the allocation for a small convention aimed at 250
delegates and resulting in 278, and Convention 2 indicates a mid-sized
convention aimed at 500 delegates and resulting in 554.
Note on the future: These are figures as of now. There will be more
statewide races to figure in for 2006 in plenty of time to recalibrate for
the 2008 convention.
Note on verification: The full list of all races in all states considered in
this model is available as a Word document for those who wish to inspect it
for accuracy. Please feel free to do so, and I will take no offense. My eyes
got pretty bleary staring into a cathode ray tube for several late nights
putting all this together, and there is the possibility that a race or two
got lost.
ALABAMA - (9)
Pres. avg. 0.725%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
ALASKA - (9)
Pres. avg. 1.009%
Conv. 1 - 3 Conv. 2 - 5
ARIZONA - (7)
Pres. avg. 0.916%
Conv. 1 - 3 Conv. 2 - 5
ARKANSAS - (9)
Pres. avg. 0.610%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 3
CALIFORNIA - (132)
11 races, avg. 18.291%
Conv. 1 - 46 Conv. 2 - 92
COLORADO - (22)
Pres. avg. 3.060%
Conv. 1 - 8 Conv. 2 - 15
CONNECTICUT - (15)
Pres. avg. 2.517%
Conv. 1 - 6 Conv. 2 - 13
DELAWARE - (7)
3 races, avg. 0.534 %
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 3
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - (11)
10 races, avg. 0.833%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
FLORIDA - (26)
Pres. avg. 3.888%
Conv. 1 - 10 Conv. 2 - 20
GEORGIA - (12)
5 races, avg. 0.507%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 3
HAWAII - (9)
Pres. avg. 0.676%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 3
IDAHO - (7)
Pres. avg. 0.390%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 2
ILLINOIS - (22)
Pres. avg. 3.113%
Conv. 1 - 8 Conv. 2 - 16
INDIANA - (10)
Pres. avg. 0.578%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 3
IOWA - (9)
7 races, avg. 1.075%
Conv. 1 - 3 Conv. 2 - 5
KANSAS - (9)
Pres. avg. 1.316%
Conv. 1 - 3 Conv. 2 - 7
KENTUCKY - (5)
Pres. avg. 0.927%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 5
LOUISIANA - (9)
Pres. avg. 0.833%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
MAINE - (19)
4 races, avg. 2.006%
Conv. 1 - 5 Conv. 2 - 10
MARYLAND - (12)
Pres. avg. 2.004%
Conv. 1 - 5 Conv. 2 - 10
MASS. - (36)
4 races, avg. 6.996%
Conv. 1 - 17 Conv. 2 -- 35
MICHIGAN - (28)
Pres. avg. 3.285%
Conv. 1 - 8 Conv. 2 - 16
MINNESOTA - (28)
Pres. avg. 4.334%
Conv. 1 - 11 Conv. 2 - 22
MISSISSIPPI - (4)
Pres. avg. 0.358%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 2
MISSOURI - (11)
Pres. avg. 1.152%
Conv. 1 - 3 Conv. 2 - 6
MONTANA - (7)
Pres. avg. 0.914%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 5
NEBRASKA - (9)
Pres. avg. 0.903%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 5
NEVADA - (7)
Pres. avg. 0.599%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 3
NEW HAMPSHIRE - (4)
Pres. avg. 0.772%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
NEW JERSEY - (17)
Pres. avg. 3.350%
Conv. 1 - 8 Conv. 2 - 17
NEW MEXICO - (10)
7 races, avg. 1.664%
Conv. 1 - 4 Conv. 2 - 8
NEW YORK - (42)
Pres. avg. 9.954%
Conv. 1 - 25 Conv. 2 - 50
NORTH CAROLINA - (13)
1 Presidential race, avg. 0.125%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 1
NORTH DAKOTA - (3)
Pres. avg. 0.383%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 2
OHIO - (23)
Pres. avg. 3.416%
Conv. 1 - 9 Conv. 2 - 17
OKLAHOMA - (4)
No races.
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 1
OREGON - (19)
Pres. avg. 2.394%
Conv. 1 - 6 Conv. 2 - 12
PENNSYLVANIA - (37)
9 races, avg. 3.683%
Conv. 1 - 9 Conv. 2 - 18
RHODE ISLAND - (10)
Pres. avg. 0.898%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
SOUTH CAROLINA - (9)
Pres. avg. 0.787%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
SOUTH DAKOTA - (2)
1 Presidential race, avg. 0 .282%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 1
TENNESSEE - (10)
3 races, avg. 1.187%
Conv. 1 - 3 Conv. 2 - 6
TEXAS - (38)
Pres. avg. 4.287%
Conv. 1 - 11 Conv. 2 - 21
UTAH - (9)
Pres. avg. 1.366%
Conv. 1 - 4 Conv. 2 - 7
VERMONT - (8)
Pres. avg. 0.720%
Conv. 1 - 2 Conv. 2 - 4
VIRGINIA - (15)
Pres. avg. 1.791%
Conv. 1 - 4 Conv. 2 - 9
WASHINGTON - (22)
Pres. avg. 3.740%
Conv. 1 - 9 Conv. 2 - 19
WEST VIRGINIA - (33)
Pres. avg. 0.427%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 2
WISCONSIN - (33)
5 races, avg. 3.959%
Conv. 1 - 10 Conv. 2 - 20
WYOMING - (3)
Pres. avg. 0.213%
Conv. 1 - 1 Conv. 2 - 1
-----------------------------------------
Total delegates Convention 1: 278 Convention 2: 554
Steve Greenfield, New Paltz, NY
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