[Pnp-wg] alloctions including a population factor

[Greg Gerritt]

Steve G recently presented us with a chart showing the percentage of
delegates to a  convention the various states would be allotted if the
allotment was based upon an average percentage of the national vote for
Greens in statewide races (state or national) over the last few election
cycles. =20

As a person who believes that no one criteria can really represent what is
going on in the various state parties, I have suggested that state laws,
state political cultures, and other factors that vary widely from state to
state factor into the votes Green candidates get. Therefore measuring votes
we get a number with factors built in that work against some of the state
parties and work in the favor of other state parties without necessarily
being related to the amount of work being done in a particular state by
Greens or the quality of that work.  North Carolina is an obvious example,
and here Steve noted that his criteria do not give us a number that really
reflects on the ground activity very well.  States with the most restrictiv=
e
ballot access laws may not be served by this system very well.  Nor does it
seem to serve well for states with newer Green Parties.

We have had several other people suggest criteria that could be factored
into this equation, Forrest Hill=B9s proposal being the one that comes to
mind.  Forrest used several different criteria in coming up with his
percentages, again primarily based on vorting statistics without factoring
in restrictive state laws.

I have suggested previously that adding in a population factor can smooth
out some of the edges in allocating delegation sizes.  I have suggested thi=
s
because the state laws by which we measure political activity do not apply
across all states and because political cultures in the various states can
mask green activity in different ways across state lines.  An additional
reason to factor in population is that in an American political party, in a
political party swimming in the milieu of the American political and
electoral system, dramatically over or under representing states in the
debate within the party compared to the debates in other parties can serve
to marginalize us.  The American public wants to see something that is
recognizable.  Not the same as the other parties, but recognizably American=
,
within the culture and traditions of our political system.

The numbers I present below are based on the 2000 Census.  Total population
was just over 281 million people.  I took the population listed for each
state and divided it into 281 million to find the percentage of the
population that resides in the particular state.  I then averaged the
percentage that Steve calculated with the population twice.  Once in which
both the percentage of the vote and the percentage of the population were
given equal weight, and once in which the percentage of the population was
1/4 of the calculation.

I think it provides us some interesting numbers to ponder.  greg



Total population of the United States  281 million

Alabama   population  4,447,100     percentage of US population  1.58%
Steve=B9s state average percentage of the national Green vote, noting which
races were taken into account   Pres. avg. 0.725%    Convention allocation
if percentage of national Green vote and population percentage are weighted
equally  1.152   Convention allocation with percentage of the national Gree=
n
vote weighted 3 to one versus population  .938

My apologies if the chart loses its formatting in transmission.



Alabama    4,447,100   1.58%    Pres. avg. 0.725%     1.152     .938

Alaska          626,932     .22%  Pres. avg. 1.009%      .6145    .812

Arizona     5,130,632   1.82%  Pres. avg. 0.916%     1.368         1.142

Arkansas   2,673,400     .95%  Pres. avg.  0.610%      .78             .695

California   33,871,648   12.05%   11 races, avg. 18.291%   15.17  14.535

Colorado    4,301,261     1.53%    Pres. avg. 3.060%  2.45          2.68

Connecticut    3,405,565   1.21%  Pres. avg.  2.517%  1.86         2.19

Delaware    783,600       .278%   3 races, avg.  0.534 %   .406       .47

District of Columbia    572,050    .203%  10 races, avg. 0.833%    .518
.6755

Florida    15,982,378    5.68%    Pres. avg. 3.888%          4.78    4.33

Georgia     8,186,453    2.91%   5 races, avg.  0.507%    1.708  1.107

Hawaii       1,211,537   .431%   Pres. avg. 0.676%        .554      . 615

Idaho   1,293,953   .460%        Pres. avg. 0.390%            .425   .4075

Illinois   12,419,293   4.41%   Pres. avg. 3.113%            3.76    3.44

Indiana    6,080,485   2.16%    Pres. avg.  0.578%          1.37    .9735

Iowa      2,926,324   1.04%    7 races, avg. 1.075%      1.0575  1.66

Kansas    2,688,418   .956%   Pres. avg. 1.316%           1.136   1.226

Kentucky  4,041,769   1.43%   Pres. avg.  0.927%         1.178  1.053

Louisiana   4,468,976   1.59%    Pres. avg. 0.833%         1.211  1.02

Maine    1,274,923   .454%   4 races, avg. 2.006%       1.23   1.618

Maryland     5,296,48   1.88%  Pres. avg.  2.004%        1.942    1.973

Massachusetts  6,349.097   2.26%  4 races, avg. 6.996%    4.628    5.812

Michigan    9,938,444    3.53%     Pres. avg. 3.285%       3.407   3.35

Minnesota  4,419,479   1.57%   Pres. avg. 4.334%       2.95  3.64

Mississippi   2,844,658   1.01%   Pres. avg.  0.358%    .684   .521

Missouri   5,595,211   1.99%  Pres. avg. 1.152%      1.57  1.36

Montana     902,295    .321%  Pres. avg.  0.914%     .6175  .766

Nebraska   1,711,263    .609%   Pres. avg.  0.903%    .756  .83

Nevada     1,998,257    .711%   Pres. avg. 0.599%      .655   .627

New Hampshire  1,235,786  .439%  Pres. avg. 0.772%  .6055   .688

New Jersey     8,414,350   2.99%  Pres. avg. 3.350%   3.17   3.26

New Mexico  1,819,046  .647%  7 races, avg. 1.664%   1.155  1.41

New York   18,976,457  6.75%  Pres. avg.  9.954%     8.36   9.153

North Carolina  8,049,313  2.86%  Pres. race, avg. 0.125%   1.49   .809

North Dakota   642,200   .228%        Pres. avg.  0.383%    .306  .344

Ohio    11,353,140   4.04%   Pres. avg.  3.416%    3.73   3.57

Oklahoma    3,450,654    1.22%     No races.

Oregon   3,421,389   1.21%  Pres. avg. 2.394%   1.802   2.098

Pennsylvania   12,281,054   4.37%  9 races, avg. 3.683%   4.03   3.855

Rhode Island   1,048,319   .373%   Pres. avg. 0.898%    .6355  .767

South Carolina   4,012,012   1.42%   Pres. avg. 0.787%     1.10  .945

South Dakota   754,844   .269%   Pres. race, avg.  .282%   .2755   .279

Tennessee   5,689,283   2.02%  3 races, avg.  1.187%   1.603   1.395

Texas      20,851,820     7.42%     Pres. avg. 4.287%       5.85     5.07

Utah          2,233,169   .794%     Pres. avg. 1.366%       1.08  1.22

Vermont   608,827       .216%     Pres. avg. 0.720%       .468   .594

Virginia   7,078,515      2.51%      Pres. avg. 1.791%      2.15  1.97

Washington     5,899,121  2.09%   Pres. avg.  3.740%    2.915  3.33

West Virginia    1,808,344   .643%  Pres. avg.  0.427%    .535   .481

Wisconsin     5,363,675    1.91%   5 races, avg. 3.959%   2.934  3.45

Wyoming   493,782   .176%  Pres. avg. 0.213%   .195  .204





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