[Pnp-wg] proposal
Charlie
oldbogus@ris.net
Sat, 12 Mar 2005 18:03:19 -0700
OK. That didn't work; our list strips attachments. But I extracted the data
on the website into a spreadsheet. If'n you want a copy, let me know.
Charlie
Charlie wrote:
> Attached.
>
> Charlie
>
> Forrest Hill wrote:
>
>> Hi Steve,
>>
>> This is a fair summary of the proposed approached, although it might
>> be best if in step 2. states used a couple of methods (say local
>> voting strength, the proportion of elected officials, and presidential
>> voting strength) and then averaged these values together.
>>
>> I use percentages rather than numbers because that is really the only
>> way to make direct comparisons between states. For example if in state
>> A a total of 1,000,000 votes were cast for local candidates over a 4
>> year period and in State B a total of 100,000 votes were casted, then
>> we could conclude that State A has about 10 times as many Green
>> members as State B (i.e. this is an indirect conclusion that assumes
>> "membership is proportional" to voting strength). If the total number
>> of votes cast for local candidates in all states is 10,000000, then we
>> would assume that State A has 10% of the membership and State B has 1%.
>>
>> It is important to note that we don't know what the proportional
>> relationship "is" between votes cast and membership size, so trying to
>> estimate the number of members in a state from votes casted is rather
>> futile (i.e. is it 1 member for every 10 votes, 20 votes, 22.7 votes.
>> 2003 votes, etc?). In fact trying to estimate actual membership
>> numbers based on voting strength is what has lead to the rather crazy
>> delegate formulas used in the past.
>>
>> In terms of allotting delegates, once the membership percentage for
>> each state is determined, all that is required is to multiply these
>> percentages by the delegation size (which can be any size we deem
>> appropriate). So in the case of State A and State B above, if the
>> delegation size is 500, then State A would get 50 delegates (i.e. 10%
>> of 500) and States B would get 5. If the delegation size is 1000, then
>> State A would get 100 delegates and State B would get 10, etc.
>>
>> I hope that makes sense....
>>
>> Forrest
>>
>> p.s. Is there any simple way to download the election data on the GPUS
>> web page into a spreadsheet. The way the data is presented right now
>> makes it difficult to tabulate statistics -- Greg perhaps you know the
>> answer to this question
>>