[Texgreen] US public says get out of Iraq; Saudis say stay

[Roger Baker]

[How do you say no to your drug pusher? -- Roger]

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Saudis Give a Grim What If Should U.S. Opt to Leave Iraq

  By HELENE COOPER
Published: December 13, 2006

WASHINGTON, Dec. 12 =97 Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration =20=

that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war =20
against Iraq=92s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of =20=

Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia conveyed that message to Vice President =20=

Dick Cheney two weeks ago during Mr. Cheney=92s whirlwind visit to =20
Riyadh, the officials said. During the visit, King Abdullah also =20
expressed strong opposition to diplomatic talks between the United =20
States and Iran, and pushed for Washington to encourage the =20
resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, senior =20=

Bush administration officials said.

The Saudi warning reflects fears among America=92s Sunni Arab allies =20
about Iran=92s rising influence in Iraq, coupled with Tehran=92s nuclear =
=20
ambitions. King Abdullah II of Jordan has also expressed concern =20
about rising Shiite influence, and about the prospect that the Shiite-=20=

dominated government would use Iraqi troops against the Sunni =20
population.

A senior Bush administration official said Tuesday that part of the =20
administration=92s review of Iraq policy involved the question of how =20=

to harness a coalition of moderate Iraqi Sunnis with centrist Shiites =20=

to back the Iraqi government led by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki.

The Saudis have argued strenuously against an American pullout of =20
Iraq, citing fears that Iraq=92s minority Sunni population would be =20
massacred. Those fears, United States officials said, have become =20
more pronounced as a growing chorus in Washington has advocated a =20
draw-down of American troops in Iraq, coupled with diplomatic =20
outreach to Iran, which is largely Shiite.

=93It=92s a hypothetical situation, and we=92d work hard to avoid such a =
=20
structure,=94 one Arab diplomat in Washington said. But, he added, =93If =
=20
things become so bad in Iraq, like an ethnic cleansing, we will feel =20
we are pulled into the war.=94

The Bush administration is also working on a way to form a coalition =20
of Sunni Arab nations and a moderate Shiite government in Iraq, along =20=

with the United States and Europe, to stand against =93Iran, Syria and =20=

the terrorists,=94 another senior administration official said Tuesday.

Until now Saudi officials have promised their counterparts in the =20
United States that they would refrain from aiding Iraq=92s Sunni =20
insurgency. But that pledge holds only as long as the United States =20
remains in Iraq.

The Saudis have been wary of supporting Sunnis in Iraq because their =20
insurgency there has been led by extremists of Al Qaeda, who are =20
opposed to the kingdom=92s monarchy. But if Iraq=92s sectarian war =20
worsened, the Saudis would line up with Sunni tribal leaders.

The Saudi ambassador to the United States, Prince Turki al-Faisal, =20
who told his staff on Monday that he was resigning his post, recently =20=

fired Nawaf Obaid, a consultant who wrote an opinion piece in The =20
Washington Post two weeks ago contending that =93one of the first =20
consequences=94 of an American pullout of Iraq would =93be massive Saudi =
=20
intervention to stop Iranian-backed Shiite militias from butchering =20
Iraqi Sunnis.=94

Mr. Obaid also suggested that Saudi Arabia could cut world oil prices =20=

in half by raising its production, a move that he said =93would be =20
devastating to Iran, which is facing economic difficulties even =20
without today=92s high oil prices.=94 The Saudi government disavowed Mr. =
=20
Obaid=92s column, and Prince Turki canceled his contract.

But Arab diplomats said Tuesday that Mr. Obaid=92s column reflected the =20=

view of the Saudi government, which has made clear its opposition to =20
an American pullout from Iraq.

In a speech in Philadelphia last week, Prince Turki reiterated the =20
Saudi position against an American withdrawal from Iraq. =93Just =20
picking up and leaving is going to create a huge vacuum,=94 he told the =20=

World Affairs Council. =93The U.S. must underline its support for the =20=

Maliki government because there is no other game in town.=94

Prince Turki said Saudi Arabia did not want Iraq to fracture along =20
ethnic or religious lines. On Monday a group of prominent Saudi =20
clerics called on Sunni Muslims around the world to mobilize against =20
Shiites in Iraq. The statement called the =93murder, torture and =20
displacement of Sunnis=94 an =93outrage.=94

The resignation of Prince Turki, a former Saudi intelligence chief =20
and a son of the late King Faisal, was supposed to be formally =20
announced Monday, officials said, but that had not happened by late =20
Tuesday.

=93They=92re keeping us very puzzled,=94 a Saudi official said. Prince =20=

Turki=92s resignation was first reported Monday in The Washington Post.

If Prince Turki does depart, he will leave after 15 months on the =20
job, in contrast to the 22 years that his predecessor, Prince Bandar =20
bin Sultan, spent as ambassador in Washington.

In Riyadh, there was a sense of disarray over Prince Turki=92s =20
resignation that was difficult to hide. A former adviser to the royal =20=

family said that Prince Turki had submitted his resignation several =20
months ago but that it was refused. Rumors had circulated ever since =20
that Prince Turki intended to resign, as talk of a possible =20
government shake-up grew.

Prince Saud al-Faisal, Saudi Arabia=92s foreign minister and Prince =20
Turki=92s brother, has been in poor health for some time. He is =20
described as eager to resign, with his wife=92s health failing, too, =20
just as the United States has been prodding Saudi Arabia to take a =20
more active role in Iraq and with Iran.

The former adviser said Prince Turki=92s resignation came amid a =20
growing rivalry between the ambassador and Prince Bandar, who is now =20
Saudi Arabia=92s national security adviser. Prince Bandar, well known =20=

in Washington for his access to the White House, has vied to become =20
the next foreign minister.

=93This is a very high-level problem; this is about Turki, the king and =20=

Bandar,=94 said the former adviser to the royal family. =93Let=92s say =
the =20
men don=92t have a lot of professional admiration for each other.=94

Hassan M. Fattah contributed reporting from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
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