[Texgreen] Wallerstein's latest

[Roger Baker]

Commentary No. 192, Sept. 1, 2006

"The Tiger at Bay: Scary Times Ahead"

When many years ago, some of us said that the decline of United States
hegemony in the world-system was inevitable, unstoppable, and already
occurring, we were told by most people that we ignored the obvious
overwhelming military and economic strength of the United States. And  
there
were some critics who said that our analyses were harmful because they
served as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Then the neo-cons came to power in the Bush presidency, and they  
implemented
their policy of unilateral macho militarism, designed (they said) to  
restore
unquestioned United States hegemony by frightening U.S. enemies and
intimidating U.S. friends into unquestioned obedience to U.S.  
policies in
the world arena. The neo-cons had their chance and their wars and have
spectacularly failed either to frighten those regarded as enemies or to
intimidate erstwhile allies into unquestioned obedience. The U.S.  
position
in the world-system is far weaker today than it was in 2000, the result
precisely of the very misguided neo-con policies adopted during the Bush
presidency. Today, quite a few people are ready to talk openly about  
U.S.
decline.

So what happens now? There are two places to look: inside the United  
States,
and in the rest of the world. In the rest of the world, governments  
of all
stripes are paying less and less attention to anything the United States
says and wants. Madeleine Albright, when she was Secretary of State,  
said
that the United States was "the indispensable nation." This may have  
been
true once, but it is certainly not true now. Now, it's a tiger at bay.

It's not yet fully the "paper tiger" of which Mao Zedong spoke, but it's
certainly on its way to being exposed as a tiger crouching in self- 
defense.

How do other nations treat a tiger at bay? With a great deal of  
prudence, it
must be said. If the United States is no longer capable of getting  
its way
almost anywhere, it is still capable of doing a great deal of damage  
if it
decides to lash out. Iran may defy the United States with aplomb, but it
tries to be careful not to humiliate it. China may be feeling its  
oats and
sure that it will get still stronger in the decades to come, but it  
handles
the United States with kid gloves. Hugo Chavez may openly tweak the  
tiger's
nose, but older and wiser Fidel Castro speaks less provocatively. And
Italy's new Prime Minister, Romano Prodi, holds Condoleezza Rice's hands
while pursuing a foreign policy clearly aimed at strengthening a  
world role
for Europe independent of the United States.

So why are they all so prudent? To answer that, we must look at what is
going on in the United States. The de facto chief executive, Dick  
Cheney,
knows what needs to be done from the point of view of the macho  
militarists,
whose leader he is. The United States must "stay the course" and indeed
escalate the violence. The alternative is to admit defeat, and Cheney  
is not
someone to do that.

Cheney does however have an acute political problem at home. He and his
policies are clearly losing support, massively, within the United  
States.
The scare speeches about terrorists and the accusations of treason  
launched
at his critics no longer seem to be as effective as they once were. The
recent victory of war critic Ned Lamont over war defender Joe  
Lieberman in
the Democratic senatorial primary in Connecticut has rattled the U.S.
political establishment of both parties. Within days, a very large  
number of
politicians seemed to move some distance in the direction of closing  
down
the Iraq operation.

If, as seems quite possible now, the Democrats win control of both  
houses of
Congress in the November 2006 elections, there risks being a stampede to
withdraw, despite the hesitancy of the Democratic congressional  
leadership.
This will be all the more sure if, in various local elections, prominent
antiwar candidates win.

What will the Cheney camp do then? One can't expect that they will
gracefully acknowledge the coming of a Democratic president in the 2008
elections. They will know that they have probably only two years left to
create situations from which it would be almost impossible for the  
United
States to retreat. And since they would not, with a Democratic  
congress, be
able to get any important legislation passed, they will concentrate  
(even
more than now) on trying to use the executive powers of the presidency,
under the docile front man, George W. Bush, to stir up military havoc  
around
the world and to reduce radically the sphere of civil liberties  
within the
United States.

The Cheney cabal will however be resisted, on many fronts. The most
important locus of resistance will no doubt be the leadership of the  
U.S.
armed forces (with the exception of the Air Force), who clearly think  
that
the current military adventures have greatly overextended U.S. military
capacity and are very worried that they will be the ones held for blame
later by U.S. public opinion when Rumsfeld and Cheney have  
disappeared from
the newspaper headlines. The Cheney cabal will be resisted as well by  
big
business who see the current policies as having very negative  
consequences
for the U.S. economy.

And of course they will be resisted by the left and center-left  
within the
United States who are feeling reinvigorated, angry, and anxious about  
the
course of U.S. policy. There is a slow but clear radicalization of  
the left
and even the center-left.

When that happens, the militarist right will retaliate very  
aggressively.
When Lamont won the primary, a reader of the Wall Street Journal wrote a
letter saying that "we have reached a tipping point in this country -  
if we
allow the left to govern as the majority our country is finished." He  
calls
Republican leaders "inept." He, and many others, will be looking for  
fiercer
leaders.

Everyone worries about civil war in Iraq. How about in the United  
States?
Scary times ahead!

By Immanuel Wallerstein

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