[Texgreen] Top scientist's fears for climate

[Roger Baker]

<http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5303574.stm>


Top scientist's fears for climate
By Roger Harrabin
BBC environment analyst

Sea levels could rise by 4m over the coming century, he warns
One of America's top scientists has said that the world has already  
entered a state of dangerous climate change.

In his first broadcast interview as president of the American  
Association for the Advancement of Science, John Holdren told the BBC  
that the climate was changing much faster than predicted.

"We are not talking anymore about what climate models say might  
happen in the future.

"We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate  
and we're going to experience more," Professor Holdren said.

He emphasised the seriousness of the melting Greenland ice cap,  
saying that without drastic action the world would experience more  
heatwaves, wild fires and floods.

He added that if the current pace of change continued, a catastrophic  
sea level rise of 4m (13ft) this century was within the realm of  
possibility; much higher than previous forecasts.

To put this in perspective, Professor Holdren pointed out that the  
melting of the Greenland ice cap, alone, could increase world-wide  
sea levels by 7m (23ft), swamping many cities.

Safe limits

He blamed President Bush not only for refusing to cut emissions, but  
also for failing to live up to his rhetoric on harnessing technology  
to tackle climate change.

"We are not starting to address climate change with the technology we  
have in hand, and we are not accelerating our investment in energy  
technology research and development," Professor Holdren observed.

He said research undertaken by Harvard University revealed that US  
government spending on energy research had not increased since 2001.  
In order to make any progress, funding for climate technology needed  
to multiply by three or four times, Professor Holdren warned.

Last year, the UK's Prime Minister, Tony Blair, held a science  
conference to determine the threshold of dangerous climate change.  
Delegates concluded that to be relatively certain of keeping the rise  
below 2C (3.6F), CO2 levels in the atmosphere should not exceed 400  
parts per million (ppm) and the highest prudent limit should be 450 ppm.

In October, at an international conference in Mexico, UK environment  
and energy ministers will try to persuade colleagues from the top 20  
most polluting nations to agree on a CO2 stabilisation level.

Professor Holdren expressed doubt that progress could be achieved  
because if the US administration agreed that there was a need to  
limit CO2, this would inevitably lead to mandatory caps. President  
Bush has already rejected that option.

For more than a year, the BBC has invited the US government to give  
its view on safe levels of CO2. Our request is repeatedly passed  
between the White House office of the Council on Environmental  
Quality and the office of the US chief scientist.

To date, we have received no response to questions on this issue that  
Tony Blair calls the most important in the world. Professor Holdren  
called on the US Government to back the UK position.

John Holdren, in addition to his presidency of the AAAS, is director  
of the Woods Hole Research Center, and the Teresa and John Heinz  
Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard University.