[Texgreen] Population problem basics

[Roger Baker]

This is a repost from Roger Arnold of the energyresources list. He  
usually has some of the clearest and most thoughtful analysis. -- Roger

                           
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Both sides in the population debate (to the extent that it's valid to
suppose there are just two sides) are missing key points:

(1) Those who see population growth as an unsolvable problem are  
blind to /
dismissive of the reality and significance of widspread sub-replacement
birth rates.

(2) Those who don't see growth as a problem, or who feel that falling  
birth
rates have already "solved" the problem, are blind to / dismissive of  
the
seriousness of problems we already face from high population levels  
and the
long odds against falling birth rates pulling our chestnuts out of  
the fire.

These are the "nothing we can do" and the "nothing we need do" camps.  
Both
are, IMO, dangerously mistaken!

The "birth dirth" in many places is real, and aging populations will  
be an
increasing problem in those areas. But any serious investor  
understands why
diversification pays off: it only takes one good high-return  
investment to
cover the losses or poor returns of ten "dogs". Likewise, if just 10% of
the population maintains a high birth rate, it won't be long before  
that 10%
has become 20% and then 40% and so on. In just a handful of generations,
the "birth dirth" will be a forgotten issue--along with the cultures  
that
gave rise to the "problem".

The anti-immigration crowd appear to understand that last point. They  
may
understand it too well; they've cast it as the whole of the problem.  
Their
solution is to build walls and defend their lifeboats. "Preserve what's
ours, and let those filthy breeders stew in their poverty until they die
off." They don't usually put it that crudely, but that's what their  
position
boils down to.

The problem with that strategy is that it's incompatible with being a  
decent
human being. Oh, it can work, after a fashion. But those who adopt it  
are
irreparably damaged by doing so. It becomes a cancer on the spirit  
that is
very hard to stop while there's still anything left for the cancer to
consume. The strategy of exclusion has no reason to stop at national
borders. It proceeds with flight to upscale suburbs and gated  
communities,
demonization of the "other", swelling prison populations, a growing  
police
state dedicated to property rights of the wealthy. It ultimately  
leads to
disintegration of the fabric of trust and mutual support on which  
societies
depend.

There's an alternative, and it's neither a matter of nobly surrendering
one's place on the lifeboat nor stupidly welcoming aboard more than the
lifeboat can carry. It's a matter of being smarter about navigating the
ship, so that one doesn't crash into icebergs in the first place.

The problem with both the "nothing we can do" and the "nothing we  
need do"
camps is that they take birth rates as external givens, beyond our  
power to
affect. That's wrong. Humans are not helpless slaves to an instinctive
urge to reproduce. We can and do make decisions about whether and  
when to
have children. Most cultures in the past have had viable mechanisms,
appropriate to their circumstances, for regulating population.  
Inheritance
laws and customs (the right of primogeniture), restrictions on  
marriage and
strict taboos against out-of-marriage birth, viable roles for women  
outside
of motherhood, ...

The trick is to understand what factors work most benignly to  
restrain birth
rates, and to figure out workable ways to promote those factors among
populations that still have birth rates far above replacement.  
There's no
big mystery to it; the answers are pretty straightforward. But here's a
clue: none of the answers involve the use of armies. Wrong tool for the
job--unless one's name is Gengis Khan and your "base" agrees that  
genocide
is a fine sport and mountains of stacked skulls are the proper way to
encourage obediance among the conquered.

Roger Arnold
Sunnyvale, CA