[Texgreen] US army exhausted by war

[Roger Baker]

"... When asked what units will fill the void in the coming spring if  
any need to be replaced, officials give a grim shake of the head,  
shrug of the shoulders or a palms-up, empty-handed gesture.  "The  
demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply," the Army chief  
of staff, Gen. George Casey, said last week. "Right now we have in  
place deployment and mobilization policies that allow us to meet the  
current demands. If the demands don't go down over time, it will  
become increasingly difficult for us to provide the trained and ready  
forces" for other missions..."

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<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070819/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/ 
us_iraq_out_of_troops;_ylt=AsMsKLFljK.D47PlaubOn2Os0NUE>


Army Too Stretched If Iraq Buildup Lasts
     By Lolita C. Baldor
     The Associated Press

     Sunday 19 August 2007

     Sapped by nearly six years of war, the Army has nearly exhausted  
its fighting force and its options if the Bush administration decides  
to extend the Iraq buildup beyond next spring.

     The Army's 38 available combat units are deployed, just  
returning home or already tapped to go to Iraq, Afghanistan or  
elsewhere, leaving no fresh troops to replace five extra brigades  
that President Bush sent to Baghdad this year, according to  
interviews and military documents reviewed by The Associated Press.

     That presents the Pentagon with several painful choices if the  
U.S. wants to maintain higher troop levels beyond the spring of 2008:

     * Using National Guard units on an accelerated schedule.

     * Breaking the military's pledge to keep soldiers in Iraq for no  
longer than 15 months.

     * Breaching a commitment to give soldiers a full year at home  
before sending them back to war.

     For a war-fatigued nation and a Congress bent on bringing troops  
home, none of those is desirable.

     In Iraq, there are 18 Army brigades, each with about 3,500  
soldiers. At least 13 more brigades are scheduled to rotate in. Two  
others are in Afghanistan and two additional ones are set to rotate  
in there. Also, several other brigades either are set for a future  
deployment or are scattered around the globe.

     The few units that are not at war, in transformation or in their  
12-months home time already are penciled in for deployments later in  
2008 or into 2009. Shifting them would create problems in the long- 
term schedule.

     Most Army brigades have completed two or three tours in Iraq or  
Afghanistan; some assignments have lasted as long as 15 months. The  
2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division, has done four tours.

     Two Marine regiments - each roughly the same size as an Army  
brigade - also in Iraq,_ bringing the total number of brigades in the  
country to 20.

     When asked what units will fill the void in the coming spring if  
any need to be replaced, officials give a grim shake of the head,  
shrug of the shoulders or a palms-up, empty-handed gesture.

     "The demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply," the  
Army chief of staff, Gen. George Casey, said last week. "Right now we  
have in place deployment and mobilization policies that allow us to  
meet the current demands. If the demands don't go down over time, it  
will become increasingly difficult for us to provide the trained and  
ready forces" for other missions.

     Casey said he would not be comfortable extending troops beyond  
their 15-month deployments. But other military officials acknowledge  
privately that option is on the table.

     Pentagon leaders hope there is enough progress in Iraq to allow  
them to scale back at least part of the nearly 30,000-strong buildup  
when soldiers begin leaving Iraq around March and April.

     There are 162,000 U.S. troops in Iraq now, the highest level  
since the war began in 2003. That figure is expected to hit 171,000  
this fall as fresh troops rotate in.

     Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq who will deliver  
a much anticipated progress report to Congress in September, said  
Wednesday he is considering possible troop cuts and believes the U.S.  
will have fewer forces in Iraq by next summer.

     Other commanders have said the security situation is improving,  
which would allow U.S. troops to be shifted from combat and lead to  
an eventual force reduction.

     Still, Petraeus and other military leaders have warned against  
drawing down too quickly. In fact, an upbeat progress report in  
September may solidify arguments that additional troops should stay  
longer to ensure that positive changes stick.

     "The longer that you keep American forces there, the longer you  
give this process to solidify and to make sure that it's not going to  
slide back," said Frederick Kagan, an American Enterprise Institute  
analyst who recently returned from an eight-day visit to Iraq. "The  
sooner you take them out, the more you run the risk that enemies will  
come in and try to disrupt."

     Kagan, a leading supporter of the current buildup strategy, said  
any decision to maintain force levels would have to take into account  
the effects on the Army. That would include, he said, the strains of  
sending Guard units back to Iraq more rapidly than Pentagon policy  
allows or keeping active duty units there longer than 15 months.

     "You have the same tradeoff at every moment in this process,  
which is the institutional well-being of the Army versus what is felt  
is necessary to win the war," Kagan said.

     According to military officials, some soldiers in Iraq are  
hearing that it may not be wise to pack their bags to come home when  
their 15-month tour is up. But to date, Pentagon officials, including  
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, have said they have no plans to  
extend those tours.

     National Guard officials are bracing for a new round of Guard  
deployments and a move to decrease their time at home between tours -  
despite announced plans to give the citizen soldiers five years off  
for every one year served.

     One Guard official said this past week that the Army is pushing  
to give Guard units four years or less at home in order to get access  
to those combat brigades sooner.

     Last April the Pentagon notified National Guard brigades in four  
states that they should be prepared to deploy to Iraq later this  
year. But documents obtained by the AP show that Guard units in five  
states - Indiana, Arkansas, Ohio, Oklahoma and Minnesota - are  
scheduled to deploy to Iraq before the end of the year. A New York  
Guard unit is set to go to Afghanistan.

     The shortage of combat units will be remedied over time. The  
Pentagon slowly is increasing the size of the active-duty Army by  
65,000 members to 547,000 by 2012. The 38 combat brigades currently  
available for war will expand to 48 by 2013.

     The Iraqis hold the key to any U.S. withdrawals. The government  
in Baghdad has made little progress on political changes the Pentagon  
says are critical to restoring stability to the country, thus  
allowing U.S. troops to begin leaving.

     If progress is not made and the violence does not abate, the  
Pentagon will turn again to the Army.

     "The Army will do what's necessary and will pay a very high  
price if necessary," said Kagan. "but I'm hopeful that it won't come  
to that and I honestly don't think that it will."