[Texgreen] World oil production has likely now peaked

[Roger Baker]

How so?

I listen to those who know best, like Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere,  
Chris Skrebowski, and Matthew Simmons.

Matthew Simmons said at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil  
conference in Boston in Nov. 2006 that we would probably know in 6-10  
months (i.e.-- if Aug. 2006 was really the peak at about 85.5 million  
barrels per day).

Today Matthew Simmons had a press conference on Bloomberg business  
news at which he announced that we have peaked because Mexico's  
Cantarell, the North Sea and Norway are together declining at .8-1  
million barrels per day. The other producers in the Mideast probably  
cannot overcome this decline, meaning that total world liquid fuel  
production (including gas liquids and tar sands) will now decline.  
Here is a link to his video press conference:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2239#comments

Simmons is an expert on Saudi production, as well as being the  
biggest US energy exploration banker, and a notoriously skilled  
number cruncher, so he is in a position to speak with authority. If  
he says world production has peaked, it likely has.

Since if oil production is steady or declining while demand  
increases, this must mean that prices will increase. How high? Likely  
a lot higher than the $3 a gallon it reached last summer, but world  
demand is uncertain (due to reserves, inventories, third world demand  
destruction, etc.). Thus price is equally uncertain, but we should  
know a lot more during the coming summer driving season.  -- Roger