[Texgreen] Waiting for the biggie to hit Florida

[Roger Baker]

<http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-=20
hurricane3jan03,0,3253020.story?coll=3Dla-home-headlines>



Hurricane center chief issues final warning

A departing Max Mayfield is convinced that the Southeast is inviting =20
disaster.
By Carol J. Williams, Times Staff Writer
January 3, 2007

MIAMI =97 Frustrated with people and politicians who refuse to listen =20=

or learn, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield ends his 34-=20=

year government career today in search of a new platform for getting =20
out his unwelcome message: Hurricane Katrina was nothing compared =20
with the big one yet to come.

Mayfield, 58, leaves his high-profile job with the National Weather =20
Service more convinced than ever that U.S. residents of the Southeast =20=

are risking unprecedented tragedy by continuing to build vulnerable =20
homes in the tropical storm zone and failing to plan escape routes.

He pointed to southern Florida's 7 million coastal residents.

"We're eventually going to get a strong enough storm in a densely =20
populated area to have a major disaster," he said. "I know people =20
don't want to hear this, and I'm generally a very positive person, =20
but we're setting ourselves up for this major disaster."

More than 1,300 deaths across the Gulf Coast were attributed to =20
Hurricane Katrina, the worst human toll from a weather event in the =20
United States since the 1920s.

But Mayfield warns that 10 times as many fatalities could occur in =20
what he sees as an inevitable strike by a huge storm during the =20
current highly active hurricane cycle, which is expected to last =20
another 10 to 20 years.

His apocalyptic vision of thousands dead and millions homeless is a =20
different side of the persona he established as head of the hurricane =20=

center.

Mayfield attained national celebrity status during the tempestuous =20
2004 and 2005 seasons, appearing on network television with hourly =20
updates as hurricanes Charley, Ivan, Frances and Wilma bore down on =20
the Caribbean and the Southeast. His calm demeanor and avuncular =20
sincerity endeared him to millions of TV viewers seeking survival =20
guidance.

And he argues that his dire predictions don't have to become reality.

The technology exists to build high-rise buildings capable of =20
withstanding hurricane-force winds and tropical storm surge more =20
powerful than those experienced in the last few years. Much of Hong =20
Kong's architecture has been built to survive typhoons, and hotels =20
and apartments built in Kobe, Japan, after a 1995 earthquake =20
devastated the city are touted as indestructible, he said.

What is lacking in the United States is the political will to make =20
and impose hard decisions on building codes and land use in the face =20
of resistance from the influential building industry and a public =20
still willing to gamble that the big one will never hit, he said.

"It's good for the tax base" to allow developers to put up buildings =20
on the coastline, Mayfield said in explaining politicians' reluctance =20=

to deter housing projects that expose residents to storm risks.

"I don't want the builders to get mad at me," he said, "but the =20
building industry strongly opposes improvement in building codes."

Consumers also have yet to demand sturdier construction, Mayfield =20
added. A builder gets a better return on investment in upgraded =20
carpet and appliances than for safety features above and beyond most =20
states' minimal requirements, he said.

As a senior civil servant, Mayfield was prohibited from making job =20
inquiries in the private sector while still in the government's =20
employ. But he said on Tuesday, his last day in office, that he hoped =20=

to launch a second career as a consultant in emergency planning and =20
disaster response. He has particular interest in a potential public-=20
private initiative to mine natural disaster scenes for their =20
educational value.

He envisions a natural disaster assessment service like the National =20
Transportation Safety Board, which probes the causes and consequences =20=

of aviation and other transport accidents.

"If the NTSB finds some structural problem is the cause of an air =20
crash, you would never see that plane continue to be built with the =20
same problems," he said.

With natural disasters, though, the same mistakes that put lives at =20
risk are repeated year after year in unsafe construction and =20
inadequate planning, he said.

Mayfield said he also was pondering collaboration with advocates of =20
tougher building standards and land use rules.

"It's not just about the forecasting. Whatever I do, I want to help =20
change the outcome," he said, conceding frustration with persistent =20
public disregard of federal and local government campaigns to boost =20
hurricane awareness and preparation.

Even after the devastating hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, he =20
said, fewer than 50% of those living in storm-prone areas have a =20
hurricane evacuation plan.

While he has been critical of the Federal Emergency Management =20
Agency's response to Katrina's devastation of New Orleans, he warns =20
against depending on the federal government after natural disasters. =20
He was dismayed to see federal agencies handing out water and ice in =20
South Florida after Hurricane Wilma hit in October 2005, when stores =20
were open and tap water was usable.

"You don't want the federal government to be your first-responders," =20
he said. "The government can't do everything for people and it =20
shouldn't, or else you create a culture of dependence."

Mayfield praises the Florida state government for its well-oiled =20
disaster-response program and steps toward improving building safety, =20=

in contrast with other states along the Gulf of Mexico that he says =20
still have no statewide building standards.

Though Mayfield's name and face recognition are the envy of some =20
presidential hopefuls, he laughs out loud at the notion of running =20
for office.

"Oh, good gosh, no! That is just not my thing," he says.

At the hurricane center on the Florida International University =20
campus, Mayfield will be succeeded by Bill Proenza, the National =20
Weather Service's director for the Southern region. Home to 77 =20
million, the region has "the most active and severe weather in the =20
world," according to the weather service's parent agency, the =20
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Proenza, 62, began his meteorological career at the Miami office as =20
an intern in 1963. As director of 50 regional offices and 1,000 =20
employees in the Southern region for the last eight years, he has =20
long experience collaborating with the hurricane center staff on =20
forecasts and tracking.

"That's why I don't have any problem walking out the door," said =20
Mayfield, declaring himself fearful that the mild 2006 hurricane =20
season left those in the storm zone ever more complacent.


carol.williams@latimes.com