[Texgreen] (no subject)

[Roger Baker]

[But a real victory will probably be messier. Here are some practical =20=

details of the difficulty of "winning", and why Bush recently bought =20
into the plan after knowing it and denying it was likely lost since =20
last June. -- Roger]



<http://www.timesonline.co.uk/printFriendly/=20
0,,1-524-2546344-524,00.html>

... Administration officials are already pondering alternative =20
strategies for Iraq, should the surge fail. Dumping Maliki is an =20
obvious first step. According to one congressman, Bush told him on =20
the phone last week: =93This has to work or you=92re out.=94

There is speculation that Maliki could be replaced by a new coalition =20=

led by vice-president Adel Abdel Mahdi, but he might find it just as =20
difficult to crack down on the Shi=92ite militias and conciliate the =20
Sunnis...

... Frederick Kagan, 36, is the author of Choosing Victory, a =20
blueprint for the surge adopted by President George W Bush. Just as =20
everybody had begun writing off the influence of the neocons at the =20
White House, genial, chubby-faced Frederick gave the muscular =20
intellectuals a lease of life.

It was at Camp David last June that Kagan, a military historian and =20
fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, outlined his plans for =20
pouring more troops into Iraq to Bush and his war cabinet.

Donald Rumsfeld, the then defence secretary, was unimpressed, but =20
Kagan=92s views got another hearing when Bush was searching for ways to =20=

ditch the seemingly defeatist recommendations of James Baker=92s Iraq =20=

Study Group. =93Wow, you mean we can still win this war?=94 a grateful =20=

Bush reportedly said...

                     ******************************************

[Below, not a bad overview of the situation judging from what I know. =20=

Bush's
tendency to miscalculate in the direction of military adventure
should be obvious to all by now. -- Roger]

<http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1989912,00.html>

After the surge ... what next?

President Bush, under fire for sending 20,000 extra troops into Iraq,
is now ready to target Iran for the chaos in Baghdad and beyond

Peter Beaumont in London, Paul Harris in New York, and Robert Tait in
Tehran
Sunday January 14, 2007
The Observer

Baghdad's Residency Office, a bustling maze of corridors and smoky
rooms, is a place of Kafkaesque bureaucracy. Controlled by a Shia
political party, it means foreigners who do not want to pay a bribe
shuffle from desk to desk to get the signatures, stamps and counter
signatures, and then more stamps, required to leave the country. Only
one group is rushed through without a cursory glance: agents who
breeze through with arms laden with stacks of passports. All of them
from Iran...=