[Texgreen] Big change in Tx transportation policy

[Roger Baker]

On Mar 7, 2007, at 3:59 PM, David Pollard wrote:

> Roger writes,
>
> "Now switch your attention to this bombshell news item. Senator Robert
> Nichols, formerly a TxDOT Commissioner, has just introduced a bill to
> put the massive Trans-Texas Corridor (and which he supported while on
> the Commission) on hold for two years! That would or will probably
> kill it."
>
> ---
> I think you're giving the pols a bit too much credit. My  
> expectation is
> that this is a maneuver, not to kill TTC, but to save it. They know  
> that
> it can't stand the full-light of public inquiry - so they're  
> delaying its
> implementation until such time that it's no longer making headlines.
> Until then, expect to get flooded with ads about how "Austin  
> Democrats"
> are trying to raise your fuel-taxes and other such non-sense to  
> shift the
> public's attention away from the indefensible plan to sell off our  
> roads
> to foreign corporations.
>
> All the Best,
> David Pollard

It could be that the politicians are have some sort of sneaky agenda  
like that but I doubt it.

 From all I can tell most of the Tx Senate is genuinely disturbed at  
how arrogant and power-hungry TxDOT has become in recent years under  
the effective control of Rick Perry and the road contractors. The big  
tip-off for me was when Robert Nichols went from TxDOT to the senate  
and is now opposing the corridor plan he has endorsed earlier.

The reason why I don't think the corridor plan will survive is  
because TxDOT doesn't have the cash to act very fast while the oil  
crunch is approaching pretty fast. Below is some good information  
about that.

Our local Austin Transpo planning group, CAMPO, is now reviewing our  
local transportation planning, based on Sen. Kirk Watson's wishes. If  
the Texas Senate delays foreign contracting of TxDOT's toll roads for  
two years, as now seems likely, here is why they are probably dead.  
But that may be the least of our problems by then.

First check out yesterday's analysis regarding Saudi Arabia's oil
production in "The Oil Drum". It takes detective work since their
real oil production capability is a deep state secret, but Stuart
Staniford is a master at interpreting the data, economics, and
political behavior in a meaningful way. In fact, I think he is  
perhaps the
best there is anywhere at this sort of thing:

<http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2331#more>

As we can see, Saudi production is falling sharply -- at a double
digit rate.

Now check out some other facts as reviewed by retired CIA energy
analyst Tom Whipple. The following was posted on the energyresources
list by Dick Lawrence yesterday.  -- Roger, Austin

****************************************************

Tom Whipple's Peak Oil News for today has a collection of articles
that, in sum, tell a bigger story about energy.

(Check the ASPO-USA
web site, http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?
option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=26&Itemid=66 ).

- Oil is touching $62 a barrel on deep U.S. crude and gasoline stock
drawdowns, and Iran concerns; price of gas is heading for $3 again in
California and Hawaii.

- Iran plans to ration distribution of subisdized petrol (which
largely comes from outside Iran, as their refineries are inadequate);

- Uganda plans to end export of unrefined crude oil and other
commodities;

- Fuel shortages and runaway inflation are seriously curtailing
availability of fuel in Zimbabwe; fuel is also short in Kenya.

- Mexico's crude exports are dropping precipitously, but Bush tells
the Mexican gov't that (permitting) private investment for deepwater
drilling could change that;

- Indonesia seeks to raise LNG prices to South Korea, plans to divert
U.S.-bound LNG traffic to Japan instead (higher price in Japan?);

- China built more passenger cars than the U.S. last year (not
counting SUVs and light pickup trucks); China will import 10.3% more
crude in 2007 than last year.

What does it all mean? Global oil production has been essentially
flat for the last year or more, and global exports are dropping
rapidly (due to rising domestic consumption in exporting nations as
well as depletion) but wealthy and developing nations like China and
the U.S. are importing more.

Who isn't getting the oil? We see "demand destruction" in Africa and
other poor regions - shortages are always attributed to other factors,
but in the end it's the runup in oil price over the last 3 years that
is pricing fuel out of markets in poor countries.

The momentum of middle-class growth and car ownership in China and
India ensures that their crude and fuel imports will continue rising.

Competition for exported oil and LNG is rising faster than supply, and
this will put inexorable pressure on prices (provided there isn't a
global recession). Oil and LNG will go to the highest bidder; expect
to see more suppliers trying to squirm out of existing contracts to
get the higher price from somewhere else with more cash to spend.

Expect 2007 to be "interesting" on the energy front.

- Dick Lawrence
ASPO-USA