[Texgreen] Gee willikers!

[Roger Baker]

<http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html?=20
gusrc=3Drss&feed=3Dnetworkfront>

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says =20
new study
=B7 Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
=B7 Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

Ashley Seager
Monday October 22, 2007
The Guardian

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon =20=

as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme =20
shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London =20
today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier =20=

than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that =20
production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new =20=

records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 =20
(=A344) a barrel.

"The world soon will not be able to produce all the oil it needs as =20
demand is rising while supply is falling. This is a huge problem for =20
the world economy," said Hans-Josef Fell, EWG's founder and the =20
German MP behind the country's successful support system for =20
renewable energy.

The report's author, Joerg Schindler, said its most alarming finding =20
was the steep decline in oil production after its peak, which he says =20=

is now behind us.

The results are in contrast to projections from the International =20
Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil =20
supplies at the moment.

However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data =20
which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in =20=

the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global =20
reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels - equivalent to 42 years' supply =20
at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about =20
two thirds of that.

Global oil production is currently about 81m barrels a day - EWG =20
expects that to fall to 39m by 2030. It also predicts significant =20
falls in gas, coal and uranium production as those energy sources are =20=

used up.

Britain's oil production peaked in 1999 and has already dropped by =20
half to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically =20
different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist =20=

David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead =20
easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this =20=

month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling =20
through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of =20=

control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

Mr Schindler comes to a similar conclusion. "The world is at the =20
beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This change =20
will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will =20
influence almost all aspects of our daily life."

Jeremy Leggett, one of Britain's leading environmentalists and the =20
author of Half Gone, a book about "peak oil" - defined as the moment =20
when maximum production is reached, said that both the UK government =20
and the energy industry were in "institutionalised denial" and that =20
action should have been taken sooner.

"When I was an adviser to government, I proposed that we set up a =20
taskforce to look at how fast the UK could mobilise alternative =20
energy technologies in extremis, come the peak," he said. "Other =20
industry advisers supported that. But the government prefers to sleep =20=

on without even doing a contingency study. For those of us who know =20
that premature peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is =20
impossible to understand such complacency."

Mr Fell said that the world had to move quickly towards the massive =20
deployment of renewable energy and to a dramatic increase in energy =20
efficiency, both as a way to combat climate change and to ensure that =20=

the lights stayed on. "If we did all this we may not have an energy =20
crisis."

He accused the British government of hypocrisy. "Tony Blair and =20
Gordon Brown have talked a lot about climate change but have not =20
brought in proper policies to drive up the use of renewables," he =20
said. "This is why they are left talking about nuclear and carbon =20
capture and storage. "

Yesterday, a spokesman for the Department of Business and Enterprise =20
said: "Over the next few years global oil production and refining =20
capacity is expected to increase faster than demand. The world's oil =20
resources are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the =20
foreseeable future. The challenge will be to bring these resources to =20=

market in a way that ensures sustainable, timely, reliable and =20
affordable supplies of energy."

The German policy, which guarantees above-market payments to =20
producers of renewable power, is being adopted in many countries - =20
but not Britain, where renewables generate about 4% of the country's =20
electricity and 2% of its overall energy needs.