[Texgreen] Smart thinking on peak oil

[Roger Baker]

[These three references following represent the state of the art in  
thinking on peak oil so far as I am concerned. -- Roger

We now know that oil will peak within about five years (2012), partly  
because of a convergence of opinion among experts like Chris  
Skrebowski skilled at estimating the time needed to bring new finds  
to market. When the previously more optimistic international advisory  
body like the IEA agrees, the matter is pretty well proven to me.   
See Exhibit A. The problems are that the price peak is likely to hit  
sooner and the solutions prove slower and more difficult than most  
environmentalists anticipate. ]




(Exhibit A)   http://www.energybulletin.net/35127.html

ASPO conference confirms a peak in global oil production by 2012

by Douglas Low

A conference held in Cork, Ireland by the Association for the Study  
of Peak oil and Gas (ASPO) last week [1] heard representatives from  
industry forecast that the best data available data pointed to  
reserves of 250 billion barrels of yet-to-find global conventional  
oil, and as a result oil production would plateau at less than 100  
million barrels per day before 2020.

This was followed up by a range of speakers who stated that current  
trends in bringing new projects onstream indicate that global oil  
production would peak on or before 2012, a forecast that coincides  
with the latest announcement from International Energy Agency that an  
oil crunch will occur by 2012 [2]...




[This being the case, we could possibly imagine that we could have as  
much as five years to 2012 to ignore the fact that we are fossil fuel  
addicts in denial, and before the price goes up higher than average  
folks can easily afford. But if we believe this, we ignore the fact  
that newly prosperous producing nations like Saudi Arabia are using  
more of their oil themselves and exporting less, so that the actual  
real downturn for the rest of the world will happen sooner. Timing of  
the oil supply problem, reflecting the best thinking by retired  
federal energy analyst Tom Whipple, reflecting recent analysis on  
"The Oil Drum", etc. Exhibit B:]



(Exhibit B:)   http://www.energybulletin.net/35172.html

Published on 27 Sep 2007 by Falls Church News-Press. Archived on 27  
Sep 2007.

The peak oil crisis: Has the media become the message?

by Tom Whipple

With every passing month, evidence peak world oil production has  
either passed or is getting very close becomes stronger. Last week,  
the world peak oil conference in Ireland, heard that the best  
available data now suggests there may only be about 250 billion  
barrels of oil left to find rather than the generally accepted figure  
of 700 billion barrels put forth by the USCGS in 2000. Keep in mind  
that 250 billion barrels is only about eight years worth at our  
current 31 billion barrel per year rate of consumptions and that,  
should these billions of barrels actually be found, they will be  
extremely difficult to find and exploit.

Optimists at the peak oil conference believe world oil production can  
keep growing for perhaps another 15 years, but those who are  
calculating the likely balance between depletion from existing oil  
fields, and production from new fields believe that declines will set  
in within three.

Add to this the phenomenon of falling exports from the major oil  
producer countries, and we have a situation where problems may be  
only months away. Last week the CEO of the U.S. Shell Oil Company  
told an audience in New Orleans the U.S. may be only one hurricane  
away from an energy crisis.

Unfortunately, public and congressional recognition of this situation  
remains virtually zero. Progress on energy legislation currently is  
stalled as the House and Senate attempt to reconcile un-reconcilable  
bills. From the perspective of appreciating the danger we face, there  
are probably not more than dozen members of the current Congress who  
understand the urgency of the situation...


[This finally brings us to the timing and economic constraints of  
responding to this oil supply crunch, and in terms of the problem of  
transfer of the economy to energy alternatives. Since the US imports  
and burns so much oil for transportation, the following reflects the  
best thinking focusing on transportation by federal consultant Robert  
Hirsch. Whereas the oil supply crisis is within a few years,  
transitions to alternatives on a wide scale have typically taken much  
longer than that, more like 1-2 decades. Exhibit C:   -- Roger]




http://www.energybulletin.net/34559.html

(Exhibit C:)

www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf

PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:
IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT
Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader
Roger Bezdek, MISI
Robert Wendling, MISI
February 2005

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world  
with an
unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached,  
liquid fuel
prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without  
timely mitigation,
the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented.  
Viable mitigation
options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have  
substantial
impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.

In 2003, the world consumed just under 80 million barrels per day (MM  
bpd) of
oil. U.S. consumption was almost 20 MM bpd, two-thirds of which was  
in the
transportation sector. The U.S. has a fleet of about 210 million  
automobiles and
light trucks (vans, pick-ups, and SUVs). The average age of U.S.  
automobiles is
nine years. Under normal conditions, replacement of only half the  
automobile
fleet will require 10-15 years. The average age of light trucks is  
seven years.
Under normal conditions, replacement of one-half of the stock of  
light trucks will
require 9-14 years. While significant improvements in fuel efficiency  
are possible
in automobiles and light trucks, any affordable approach to upgrading  
will be
inherently time-consuming, requiring more than a decade to achieve  
significant
overall fuel efficiency improvement...